Various forecasting platforms and leading predictors have suggested that the pro-Bitcoin [BTC] candidate Donald Trump stands a higher probability of emerging victorious in the upcoming US presidential elections.
An analysis conducted by Jim Bianco from Bianco Research highlighted that prediction platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and others were indicating a likelihood of over 60% for Trump’s victory.
Possible Influence on BTC
Despite some concerns raised against platforms such as Polymarket for potential manipulations, other reputable models seemed to favor Trump’s chances.
Bianco pointed out that prominent election forecasting models like Silver Bulletin and two other well-known models also indicated a probability above 50% for Trump’s win.
“Silver is not the only one with an election model. Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight, Economist Magazine. They all have Trump in an uptrend of over 50%.”
This optimistic outlook has been viewed as bullish by speculators in the BTC markets.
Notably, the price of BTC surged in recent weeks as Trump’s odds increased, surpassing 60% on Polymarket and propelling BTC to nearly $70K. Describing this connection, Bianco labeled it as an ‘election play.’
“And another election play, although this relationship might be “fraying” in recent days.”
Market Dynamics
The most noticeable impact of the positive anticipation regarding Trump’s potential win was observed in the BTC options market. Last week, options traders were estimating a 20% likelihood of BTC reaching $80K by the end of November.
These sentiments remained unchanged at the time of reporting. Based on Deribit data, there was almost twice the Open Interest in call options (speculating a price rally) compared to put options (anticipating a price decline) for contracts expiring by 8th November.
Moreover, the put/call ratio (PCR), which reflects market sentiment from the options market, stood at 0.55.
For context, a PCR above 1 suggests a bearish outlook as there are more put options than calls. Conversely, a value below 1 indicates a bullish sentiment with call options dominance.
With the 0.55 PCR reading showcasing an extremely bullish sentiment in the options market, it’s likely tied to speculators’ beliefs in Trump’s victory.
Nonetheless, given Harris’s increasing support for cryptocurrencies, BTC options traders expressed confidence in the asset reaching new all-time highs (ATH) irrespective of the election outcome.
Currently, BTC was trading at $67K, representing a 9% difference from its ATH of $73.7K.