Is there a looming takeover by Toncoin bulls? Recent analysis of on-chain data indicates that a significant shift might be on the horizon, especially with a move from short-term swing trading to a preference for long-term HODLing.
The shift is evident in the Toncoin balances categorized by the duration of holding. The holdings by HODLers saw a substantial increase from 1.89 billion TON at the end of September to 3.21 billion TON in the latest data – marking a surge of about 1.32 billion coins, equivalent to approximately $6.8 billion currently.
Conversely, Cruiser (swing traders) balances decreased from 2.36 billion TON to 1.03 billion TON during the same period, representing a drop of roughly 1.33 billion coins or about $6.94 billion. But, what implications does this have for Toncoin?
The outflows from Cruiser addresses slightly exceeded those from HODLer accounts. This trend may have been a contributing factor to the observed selling pressure since the beginning of October. Nevertheless, it also highlights a key point – HODLers now hold more than three times the Toncoin balance compared to swing traders.
This shift potentially signals a tilt towards a long-term perspective. The reduced balances of swing traders may have a less pronounced impact on short-term price movements.
The Growth of Accumulation in Toncoin’s Address Activity
The activity in addresses also reflects this move towards a long-term orientation. For instance, the daily active addresses decreased from 5.16 million on 27 September to 1.01 million active addresses.
Notably, the zero balance addresses decreased from slightly above 392,000 on 28 September to just over 35,000 addresses by 10 October.
The decline in zero-balance addresses indicates a rising trend in accumulation. Additionally, new addresses dropped from 2.58 million near the end of September to 265,000 addresses by 10 October, suggesting a lack of fresh demand that could potentially impact Toncoin.
However, it is significant to note that TON recently disclosed surpassing 100 million holders.
Although these insights paint a positive picture, the price action of TON has been bearish over the past couple of weeks, experiencing a 15% decline from its September peak. Despite this setback, the current price of TON still maintains a 16% premium compared to its lowest point in September.
In summary, Toncoin appears to be gearing up for a substantial recovery based on recent on-chain trends. Nevertheless, its price movement suggests that it might not have accumulated enough momentum yet to initiate its next major bullish upswing.