Over the last month, the bulls of Toncoin [TON] successfully defended the $5.19 support threshold. This level represented the midpoint retracement of TON’s surge in February and March of 2024, which amounted to 58.4% during November when Bitcoin [BTC] spiked from $70k to $99k.
Despite this resilience, the price failed to break free from the longer-term trading range. With the price hovering near its lower bound, investors may be contemplating whether there are positive indicators suggesting an upward trend or considering selling TON to explore other investment prospects.
Toncoin – Accumulation or distribution?
Upon analyzing the weekly price movements, CryptoCrypto identified a range pattern (marked in purple) spanning from $4.91 to $6.88. Positioned at $5.92, the mid-range level corresponded to the 38.2% retracement, serving as an interim resistance.
In December, following the exhaustion of BTC bulls and their inability to propel further beyond $108k, TON’s price encountered resistance at the 6-month high within the range. Although the failure to break out was disappointing, defending the lows presented an entry point for buyers.
A bearish market structure was evident on the daily chart. Over the past six weeks, TON has sequentially set lower highs, accompanied by a daily RSI persistently below the neutral 50 mark – indicating a predominantly bearish momentum.
Investors confident in the asset position may consider adding more TON when prices hit $5.19 and $4.88. A potential recovery seemed promising because the On-Balance Volume (OBV) exhibited a consistent uptrend since September, suggesting accumulating interest within the range formation over the past six months.
Short-term charts displayed a resurgence of bullish sentiment in the market. The Open Interest rose from $147 million on Monday, 13 January, to $156.48 million at the latest update.
Monday’s decline led to a series of long liquidations, yet the swift rebound of BTC and Toncoin showcased market strength. Hence, the overall bias tilted towards a bullish outlook. Expect volatility in the days ahead, but it is anticipated that the $5.19 level will act as a significant support.
Disclaimer: The content shared herein reflects personal opinions and should not be considered as financial, investment, trading, or any form of advisory guidance.