Ethereum’s market signals are showing a complex outlook as we step into the fourth quarter of the year. Although a bullish closing in September has typically resulted in positive market movements, Ethereum appears to be tracing a different path this time around.
September saw ETH ending on a positive note, closely mirroring its 2016 performance, hinting at a possible downward trend for Q4. If this pattern persists, the fourth quarter might witness a decline, followed by a rebound in the first quarter of 2025.
The price dynamics of Ethereum continue to be fascinating, with its historical data becoming a focal point to observe potential deviations from past trends.
Large Investors Profiting and Unstake Actions
The current price behavior of Ethereum appears to echo its 2016 pattern, signaling a potential bearish shift in Q4. This sentiment is being reinforced by major investors, often referred to as “whales,” who are opting to unstake their ETH holdings to lock in profits.
Recently, a significant whale unstaked 29,480 ETH and transferred it to Coinbase, securing profits exceeding $2 million.
Such moves by prominent players typically indicate an anticipation of a market downturn, which in turn heightens the chances of a bearish Q4 for Ethereum. This activity exerts downward pressure on ETH’s price, with investors keeping a close eye on potential price depreciation.
Flow of ETH ETFs and Market Changes
Ethereum has witnessed notable outflows from its exchange-traded funds (ETFs), further adding to the cautious sentiment. Since September 3, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum ETFs have experienced substantial net outflows.
ETH ETFs registered outflows totaling $48.6 million, with industry giants like Grayscale and Fidelity observing significant withdrawals. While some smaller ETFs saw inflows, they were insufficient to offset the overall outflow trend.
This trend hints that institutional investors could be gearing up for a potential price decline for Ethereum in Q4, aligning with the broader market sentiment.
Impact of Geopolitical Factors on Market Prices
The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have had consequences on the broader crypto market, including Ethereum. Both BTC and ETH faced sharp declines, with ETH’s value dipping below $2,500.
In the last 24 hours, 155,000 accounts were liquidated, totaling $533 million, with $451 million coming from long positions.
These liquidations, particularly in ETH, provide more evidence to suggest that Ethereum might indeed follow the 2016 pattern of a bearish Q4.
The confluence of whale activities, ETF outflows, and geopolitical pressures paints a challenging picture for Ethereum in Q4.
While ETH has displayed resilience in its price, historical trends and current market conditions point towards a potential downtrend before a probable recovery in early 2025.
Investors are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor these trends, as any deviation from the norm could introduce both risks and opportunities for ETH in the coming months.