Bitcoin [BTC] recently hit a new peak at $76.4k on November 6th, following the outcome of the U.S. elections, which resulted in Donald Trump’s victory.
Trump’s supportive position on cryptocurrencies and his pledges could potentially benefit Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market.
Predicting Bitcoin’s Price Movement – Will History Repeat Itself?
The year 2020 marked a significant period for Bitcoin as it was a year of halving for BTC, coinciding with the U.S. presidential elections.
In November 2020, Bitcoin’s trajectory turned bullish, gaining momentum after the U.S. election results were announced, reducing market uncertainties and triggering a rapid surge.
A similar pattern could unfold in the approaching weeks as well.
Looking at the past cycle, Bitcoin witnessed a remarkable 319% increase in slightly over five months. If this trend recurs, it might propel BTC to $288k by early April 2025. Yet, this scenario seems highly improbable.
Historically, each cycle has shown diminishing returns over an extended period compared to the previous one, making long-term Bitcoin projections challenging.
Analysis based on Fibonacci levels indicates the immediate price targets, although breaching $109k by 2025 would not be out of the question.
Insights derived from on-chain metrics continue to indicate that Bitcoin is still in the early phases of its upward trend and is far from reaching its peak.
Inferring from Past Trends to Anticipate the Future
In 2017, Bitcoin astounded many by surging 600% in three months, subsequently sparking a new bull run in 2020 after being dismissed as inactive just a year before.
By examining the price movements during that period, it’s evident that most of those gains were retraced by 2019 before the subsequent bullish trend commenced in 2020.
Employing a different Fibonacci set, it can be observed that the retracement in 2022 consolidated around the 78.6% level, opting for the March highs over the November ones due to the absence of any significant movement thereafter.
The 2017 rally’s 227% extension equated to $58.4k, aligning closely with Bitcoin’s weekly session closures in early 2021.
Therefore, a daring prediction for Bitcoin’s valuation proposes a minimum of $225k within this cycle, possibly reaching an all-time high that is 10-15% higher.
Considering the gradual deceleration in each successive BTC cycle, surpassing the $200k milestone could take another year or more to materialize.
Despite such projections, a number of well-respected analysts and industry experts, including Ki Young Ju, remain skeptical about Bitcoin prices exceeding $100k.
Disclaimer: The views expressed do not serve as financial, investment, trading, or any form of advice but rather represent the personal perspective of the author.