Bitcoin [BTC] has been defying market predictions in the last month, continuing its downward trend despite expectations of a rebound.
Currently, BTC is priced at $54,439, showing a 6.5% drop over the past week and a 10.85% decline in the last 30 days. The trading volume has also decreased by 65.23% to $16.1 billion on daily charts.
Despite these trends, market sentiment remains positive as analysts anticipate a potential rally. Renowned crypto analyst Bittel Julien, for example, suggests an upcoming surge based on historical cycles, particularly referencing the 2019 cycle.
Current Market Sentiment
Julien notes the prolonged consolidation phase lasting 175 days as a key factor in his analysis. Comparing it to the 2019 cycle, he predicts a similar trajectory for Bitcoin leading towards an upward movement.
Historically, BTC shifted from $7,200 to $10,000 after a long consolidation in 2020, with subsequent declines attributed to external factors like the pandemic. Analysts foresee a rebound ahead following this extended consolidation period.
Using history as a guide, a significant breakout or a continuation of the consolidation pattern could be imminent.
Analysis of BTC Charts
While Julien’s analysis suggests a reversal, it’s important to consider if other metrics align with this viewpoint.
Significantly, large holders have been increasing their inflow from 1.76k to 11.57k over the past week, indicating confidence and a willingness to buy during market dips.
Accumulation behavior among investors signals positive sentiment towards future price increases, creating a bullish environment with rising buying pressure.
Furthermore, the fund flow ratio has seen a rise, signifying more capital flowing in than out. This uptrend in buying activity typically leads to upward price movements, reflecting growing investor optimism.
Long-term holders have maintained their positions despite price declines, as evidenced by the NVM ratio climbing from 1.4 to 2.05 in the last week.
This collective market behavior underscores the belief and confidence of long-term investors in Bitcoin’s potential.
Given these indicators and the current market conditions, Bitcoin appears primed for a potential breakout above the $56K resistance level.