Concerns about the market overheating are increasing as Bitcoin [BTC] surpasses the $68,000 milestone, breaking a slump that lasted four months, all while the RSI experiences a significant decline.
Trading slightly above this crucial level might indicate a potential peak for BTC. If this level is confirmed as a point of resistance, a price adjustment could be looming, potentially leading to widespread capitulation. Nevertheless,
The Surge of Bitcoin — Emotions vs Fundamentals
Initially, it is crucial to acknowledge that Bitcoin is greatly impacted by macroeconomic elements.
At present, a combination of factors – including the surge post-halving, the approaching conclusion of the election cycle, the frenzy known as “Uptober,” and cuts in Fed rates – have all converged to propel Bitcoin to $68,000 in just ten days without experiencing a substantial pullback.
This is significant because, despite crucial technical indicators pointing towards an imminent reversal, these macro factors could reinforce the belief of significant holders that this level is an important buying zone.
In essence, major players may still perceive this level as an opportunity, and this psychological momentum might attract more buyers, driven by increasing FOMO as market sentiment intensifies.
Bolstering this trend is the increase in whale activity: the number of addresses holding 1,000-10,000 BTC has reached a peak in the last three months. The previous significant spike occurred in parallel with a daily price surge of 5%, propelling BTC above $66,000.
Simply put, whales have played a pivotal role in combating bearish pressure. Since the commencement of October, their actions have validated CryptoCrypto’s initial thesis: macro factors are enticing large players.
Overall, it seems that this cycle is largely influenced by psychology. Hence, despite bearish efforts to short Bitcoin, the chances of a substantial correction appear slim for the time being.
Market Excitement Paving the Path to $73,000
Traditionally, the year of the halving has served as a reliable indicator for anticipating the onset of a bull market. Spikes in the 30-day average demand (highlighted in green) have consistently aligned with the reduction in Bitcoin’s supply during halving events.
These supply reductions typically trigger long-term surges, delivering exceptional returns to investors.
Interestingly, even if the underlying fundamentals do not materialize immediately, the widespread expectation alone can trigger a breakthrough.
This trend is a perfect illustration: the market was abuzz with predictions of a rally driven by halving, and as anticipated, Bitcoin soared to $68,000 in an impressively short period.
With that said, if whale activity continues along this upward trajectory – which appears probable – Bitcoin could be on track to achieve its record high of $73,000 before the conclusion of Q4.