During a period of fluctuating Asian markets, with shares experiencing ups and downs, the digital currency landscape displayed remarkable resilience.
Bitcoin [BTC] saw a surge to a three-month peak, indicating a significant increase in trading activity as the so-called “Trump trades” gathered momentum.
At the start of trading on October 21, BTC hit $68,496.98, showcasing a rise of more than 6% over the previous week and over 8% in the last month.
This occurred while investors positioned themselves ahead of the impending U.S. presidential election just a fortnight away.
Trump’s Growing Probability and its Effect on the Crypto Market
Data from Polymarket demonstrates that Donald Trump is leading with 61.1% of forecasted votes, with Kamala Harris trailing at 38.8%.
As a result, with no significant economic events this week, market attention was directed towards corporate earnings and election uncertainties.
Evidently, Bitcoin has seen an uptick as Trump’s chances rise, with his administration perceived as more accommodating towards cryptocurrency regulation.
His stances on tariffs, taxes, and immigration are considered inflationary, which could potentially boost the dollar and benefit the digital currency market.
Responses from Industry Leaders
Commenting on this, Chris Weston, head of research at the Australian broker Pepperstone, pointed out that investors might face escalating costs when safeguarding against dollar volatility and other portfolio-related risks.
Weston remarked,
“With just 15 days remaining until the U.S. election, traders must decide if it’s the opportune moment to start executing election trades with increased conviction.”
Contributing to the discussion was Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, who mentioned that rising real interest rates were lending support to the dollar, notably against three major currencies.
“We anticipate this trend to persist leading up to the election, and if Trump emerges victorious, it is likely to continue even post-election.”
What are the Chances of Trump Winning?
Interestingly, in a recent publication on X, Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, revealed a policy scorecard evaluating the cryptocurrency positions of presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Thorn stated,
“The downside risk of a Harris win is limited, whereas the potential for explosive growth exists in the event of a Trump victory.”
As anticipated, a meticulous assessment of the scorecard unveiled that Donald Trump outperformed Kamala Harris in seven out of the nine fundamental areas examined.
Consequently, with just a few days left until the U.S. presidential election, it will be captivating to witness how the digital currency market reacts both during and post the election.