Following a remarkable surge from $8 to a peak of $264 in 2023 and 2024, Solana [SOL] has attracted varying opinions from analysts about its performance in 2025.
Optimists, spearheaded by Mert Mumtaz, the creator of Helius, a development platform built on Solana, are optimistic about the potential impact of the new Firedancer validator client software and the approval of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) in driving the altcoin’s growth.
Positive Factors for SOL
The Firedancer client, for those unfamiliar, aims to handle up to 1 million transactions per second (tps) in ideal scenarios while enhancing network stability by introducing an additional validator client as a backup.
Interestingly, there has been a growing bullish sentiment towards the approval of the SOL ETF by July 2025 since Christmas, as indicated by the surge in Polymarket’s odds from 58% to 71%.
Therefore, the potential ETF approval and the Firedancer software could contribute to boosting SOL’s valuation, although the looming release of over $2 billion worth of tokens in March 2025 should not be overlooked.
Concerns Surrounding the $2 Billion SOL Unlock
FTX’s insolvency in 2022 was the primary reason behind SOL’s drop to $8, given its significant support for the Solana ecosystem.
Following the bankruptcy proceedings, Galaxy Digital and other investors acquired a major portion of FTX’s SOL holdings at a discounted rate, which were scheduled to be locked for a period until the initial release in March 2025.
According to Messari data, more than $2 billion worth of SOL tokens, totaling 11.2 million SOL, are set to be unlocked in March 2025, potentially exerting downward pressure on the market due to increased selling activity.
Moreover, SOL’s recent underperformance compared to Ethereum [ETH] in December may persist into the first quarter of 2025. Some analysts anticipate that ETH might offer more profitable returns than SOL, pointing to the weakened SOL/ETH ratio that measures SOL’s performance relative to ETH.
One analyst expressed, “Solana remains impressive, but the risk-reward balance in 2025 appears more favorable for ETH.” The performance of SOL relative to ETH will determine whether SOL outperforms or lags behind ETH, with the current SOL/ETH ratio nearing its lower range. A breach below this level could divert more investment from SOL to ETH.
Nonetheless, a notable recovery in SOL/ETH above the lower range could provide Solana with a significant opportunity in 2025.
In conclusion, Solana’s outlook for 2025 seems to be hanging in the balance, influenced by both positive catalysts and potential challenges ahead.