Within the last 24 hours, Movement [MOVE] experienced a 5% rise in Open Interest, coupled with a 3.3% increase in price. In contrast, Bitcoin [BTC] saw a minor 0.04% gain while its OI decreased by 0.09%.
Despite the bearish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, indicators like realized cap and supply distribution suggest that MOVE might be on the brink of a potential recovery.
Crucial Support and Resistance Levels for MOVE
Over the preceding month, Movement token has traded within a specific range, moving from $0.83 to $1.13, with the midpoint at $0.98. In the last five days, the $0.98 mark has acted as a strong resistance level, posing a challenge for bullish attempts to push the price higher due to its proximity to the psychological barrier of $1.
The support range lies between $0.8 and $0.83. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator has shown stability without forming new lows over the last two weeks, a positive sign. Although there has been some bearish momentum as indicated by the Awesome Oscillator, a potential shift to a bullish crossover is imminent.
Recent data from Coinalyze suggests a prevailing short-term bearish sentiment in the market.
The declining Open Interest and spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) point towards ongoing selling pressure. Despite the 5% uptick in the past 24 hours, it was insufficient to counter the dominant selling sentiment.
Realized Cap Trends in the Short Term
The NVT ratio has surged recently, signaling a possible token overvaluation relative to its transaction activities. The 30-day Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) ratio stands at -4%, indicating that MOVE holders are presently facing slight losses.
Notably, the realized cap over the 30-day period declined sharply last week in conjunction with the falling price. This suggests that tokens have been moved at lower prices recently.
Supply distribution analysis reveals that besides the wallets holding 100k-1 million MOVE tokens, most market participants are increasing their holdings. The behavior of this whale cohort, significant holders in the market, is closely watched. Despite a slight decrease in the past week, their numbers remain higher than pre-Christmas levels.
Overall, the short-term outlook is bearish, with the Open Interest change failing to support MOVE’s recovery. Traders should closely monitor the realized cap metric for potential signals.
A sudden surge in the realized cap could indicate a buying opportunity, while consistent accumulation by specific holders reflects strong confidence in the token.