Polymarket, a betting platform based on blockchain technology, has experienced a significant surge in user engagement and transactions in recent months. Dune Analytics reports that total trading volumes on Polymarket have now exceeded $2 billion, largely driven by speculation surrounding the outcome of the U.S Presidential election.
In September, trading volumes on the Polygon-based platform reached $486 million, signaling a substantial uptick in activity. With month-to-date volumes already surpassing $161 million, there is a strong possibility of further growth in the current month.
Artemis data indicates that on 3 October, Polymarket witnessed a peak in the number of new daily active wallets, suggesting a continued influx of new users joining the platform. On the same day, daily transactions on Polymarket reached a record high of 93,000.
So, what factors are fueling the expansion of this blockchain betting platform?
Interest in U.S. Election Bets
The U.S. Presidential race has garnered significant attention on Polymarket, particularly the bet on the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” which has generated over $1.19 billion in trading volumes.
As of the latest data, former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead with 49.9%, closely followed by Kamala Harris with 49.1% of wagers favoring her victory.
With the bet set to conclude on 4 November, a day prior to the U.S. presidential elections, the focus on election betting has been a major driver of interest in Polymarket. Moreover, the platform has also seen a surge in other prediction markets.
The Rise of ‘Satoshi’ Speculation
Polymarket witnessed a surge in activity recently following speculation about the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin (BTC).
Following reports from HBO of an upcoming documentary claiming to have identified Nakamoto, the “Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?” bet on Polymarket has already surpassed $814,000 in trading volumes, within just two days of its launch.
Presently, 49.5% of bets anticipate that computer scientist Len Sassaman, who passed away in 2011, will be revealed as Satoshi Nakamoto. This speculation is based on Sassaman’s background as a member of the International Financial Cryptography Association.
Implications of Polymarket’s Growth on POL
Polymarket operates on the Polygon layer 2 network, and while the popularity of the betting platform has increased network usage, the same level of success has not been mirrored in its native token, POL (previously known as MATIC).
As of the latest data, POL was trading at $0.384, marking a 1.92% increase over 24 hours subsequent to a 10% decline in the past week.
The hourly chart indicates that POL is currently trading within an ascending broadening wedge pattern, typically signaling a bearish continuation. However, indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest a potential shift in momentum.
In the event of a bearish scenario, POL could test support at $0.37, while buying activity might propel the token to break resistance at $0.38 and extend gains. Amidst POL’s struggles, speculations are circulating about a potential launch of Polymarket’s own token, as reported by The Information.