Insights from Kalshi Data Show Trump Leading with 63.3% Probability Ahead of Election
With the U.S. presidential election approaching, the competition is heating up as forecast markets depict noteworthy shifts.
Trump Surpasses Harris
Former President Donald Trump has emerged as the frontrunner on prominent platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where his likelihood of victory has risen above 60%.
Recent data from Polymarket indicates a substantial 26.5-point difference between Trump and Harris.
This represents a surge from earlier forecasts that positioned Trump at 61.3%.
His numbers reportedly spiked after a highly publicized visit to a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, a pivotal swing state where he has strong backing.
According to the latest update from Polymarket, Trump leads with 64.1% of the votes, while Harris lags at 35.9%.
Contrarily, Kalshi reports Trump at 60% and Harris at 40%.
This shift can be attributed to Trump’s persistent advocacy for cryptocurrencies since the campaign’s inception.
However, his standing in the forecast markets began to decline after the initial presidential debate, despite initially leading the pack.
Exploring the Kalshi Prediction Platform
For those unfamiliar, Kalshi, a relatively new player in election predictions, has made significant progress since launching its contracts in October following a favorable court ruling against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Despite its delayed entry, Kalshi has exceeded $30 million in trading volume on its primary election contract.
While this figure falls short of Polymarket’s accomplishments, with around $40 million in presidential betting within the first month and recently surpassing $2 billion, Kalshi’s adherence to regulations provides a competitive advantage, having awaited the legal clearance to enter the market.
However, detractors like Mark Cuban suggest that foreign investments could skew the betting odds, as U.S. citizens are officially prohibited from participating on these platforms.
He remarked,
“Based on available information, most of the capital flowing into Polymarket originates from overseas, so it may not be a true reflection of sentiment.”
Kalshi vs. Polymarket
It is noteworthy that on Kalshi’s platform, Republican nominee Trump holds a 14-point lead over Democratic contender Harris. Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi only permits U.S. citizens and permanent residents to engage, given strict regulatory compliance.
Conversely, Polymarket prohibits U.S. traders but lacks Kalshi’s rigorous verification process, relying on cryptocurrency-based wagers.
Despite initial concerns that Kalshi’s regulatory framework might pose a setback, it has shielded the platform from allegations of external influence and manipulation, a challenge confronted by Polymarket.
Tarek Mansour, the co-founder, underscored this distinction in a comprehensive thread on X (formerly Twitter) and expressed,
In his closing statement, he aptly noted,
“Mainstream narrative: a few major players are driving up Trump’s odds. Truth: The average wager size on Harris exceeds that on Donald Trump. Trump’s favorable odds do not result from a select few influencing the outcome; rather, it is quite the opposite.”