The current market situation of Ethereum (ETH) demonstrates a significant bullish divergence, as shown by the taker buy-sell ratio in relation to the price trend. This divergence typically signals a forthcoming market recovery.
For example, in September 2023, despite Ethereum’s price dropping close to $1,500, there was a noticeable increase in the taker buy-sell ratio, indicating a surge in buying pressure. Subsequently, ETH began its recovery towards the $2,000 mark.
In another instance from November 2024 to January 2025, Ethereum’s price dipped to approximately $2,700. Nonetheless, the taker buy-sell ratio exhibited an upward trend, suggesting a potential increase in buying interest despite the decline in the altcoin’s value.
Historically, such patterns have marked the conclusion of bearish phases and the start of new bullish trends.
The latest developments hint that despite the current price of $2,800, an upward trend may be on the horizon. This reflects previous occurrences where heightened taker buy activity correlated with price rebounds.
Comparing Whales and Smart DEX Traders
Recent activities within the Ethereum ecosystem have highlighted a notable contrast between large holders and active traders on decentralized exchanges. This contrast emerged amidst rising prices before a sudden drop following the Bybit hack, resulting in the loss of $1.4 billion worth of ETH.
Interestingly, whale accounts have expanded their holdings by acquiring an additional 140,000 ETH, indicating a bullish stance or a long-term investment strategy. This accumulation aligns with an upward movement in ETH’s price, suggesting a high level of confidence among major investors.
Dynamics of Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD)
However, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data indicates that smart DEX traders have been increasingly capitalizing on profits or closing their positions. This shift suggests a possible change in sentiment or a cautious approach at current price levels.
This selling activity may introduce short-term price fluctuations or pressure as traders secure their gains, contrasting with the accumulation strategy of the whales. The interaction between these diverse behaviors could lead to varying short-term and long-term impacts on Ethereum’s trajectory.
Analysis of Ethereum’s Log Curves
At present, Ethereum is trading in the oversold territory, traditionally signaling a potential reversal in the price trend. ETH’s price is notably situated below the critical threshold within the log curve zones, enhancing the likelihood of a price bounce.
Throughout history, such positioning has foreshadowed significant rebounds, as seen in mid-2017 and late 2020. During these periods, Ethereum transitioned from oversold regions to higher zones, reflecting robust buying interest at perceived value levels.
While oversold conditions often precede recoveries, external market disruptions or widespread bearish sentiment could potentially override this scenario, pushing Ethereum further downward before a substantial recovery materializes.
The current oversold status has the potential to trigger a bullish reversal or extend a prolonged downtrend.