Bitcoin [BTC] has experienced an extraordinary surge of over 129% in the last year, crossing the $100k threshold, which is leading many analysts to suggest that it might be entering the later stages of its current bullish phase.
While this surge in price is indicative of significant growth, experts are now cautioning that Bitcoin might be moving into the initial distribution phase that often signals the final stretch of a bullish trend before the market undergoes a period of stabilization.
With shifting market sentiments and various key indicators hinting at potential volatility, the question arises: Are we at the peak of this upward trend, or is there still more room for growth before an expected market correction?
Insight from Dow Theory on Market Cycles
By applying the Dow Theory, we can better comprehend Bitcoin’s current market status, which categorizes market movements into two primary stages: accumulation and distribution.
Historically, Bitcoin has adhered to this cyclical behavior. In 2022, BTC experienced a distinct distribution phase following the previous year’s bullish run.
Heading into 2023, Bitcoin shifted into an accumulation phase as investors looked to secure positions at lower price points.
This accumulation phase persisted through 2024 before transitioning into the current early distribution phase observed in 2025.
Changes in trading volume and price structure have typically marked these transition points and are essential for identifying market shifts.
The provided chart illustrating Bitcoin’s price movements and volume clearly showcases these phases of accumulation and distribution.
Influence of Retail and Institutional Investors
A noteworthy aspect of the present market phase is the increasing participation of retail investors.
Despite Bitcoin soaring past six figures, retail involvement is on the rise, adding liquidity and bolstering demand in the market.
Additionally, institutional investors continue to play a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. The ongoing purchasing activity from MicroStrategy exemplifies this influence.
In early 2025, the company augmented its balance sheet with 10,107 bitcoins, boosting its total holdings to 471,107 units.
Such substantial acquisitions reflect confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects and serve as a noteworthy indicator of market sentiment.
Bitcoin’s Price Structure and Growth Prospects
Despite the shift toward distribution, Bitcoin’s current price configuration indicates that the market is still far from being overheated.
We’re in the late stage of the #Bitcoin bull market, but I believe there’s still room for growth. We are likely in the early distribution phase, with new retail investors entering the scene. The global attention driven by entities like Trump could potentially extend this bullish trend for a few more quarters.
According to Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin’s Funding Rate remains relatively low, akin to levels observed in mid-2024.
This suggests that there isn’t excessive leverage in the market and supports ongoing price discovery in spot markets.
The “fair price” for Bitcoin, calculated using a power-law model, stands at $87.99K and acts as a crucial support level.
As long as prices hold above this threshold, the bullish trend should persist.
Analysts also suggest that stable macroeconomic conditions could create windows for further price upswings before an eventual market correction.