Bitcoin’s current impressive performance following the recent U.S. Presidential election on November 5th is reminiscent of historical price trends. Throughout past U.S. election cycles, Bitcoin has witnessed significant gains, leading analysts to speculate that it could potentially reach $139,000 with its current momentum.
According to insights from TechDev on X (previously known as Twitter), Bitcoin was priced at $69,400 on election day. Drawing parallels from the gains observed during the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections, Bitcoin could potentially witness a 4.51x surge, pushing its value up to $139,180 by the year 2025.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $98,800, marking a 42% increase post-election day. With its market capitalization edging closer to $2 trillion, market sentiment appears to favor a bullish trajectory. The looming question now is whether Bitcoin will adhere to historical cycles or deviate from the expected pattern.
Is Bitcoin Recreating Past Trends?
An examination of Bitcoin’s weekly chart suggests that the upward trend initiated during the election week may likely persist. Following the November 2020 elections, Bitcoin embarked on an upward trajectory that propelled its value from approximately $13,700 to an all-time high (ATH) of $64,800 within a span of less than six months.
A similar rally that commenced during the 2024 election week is presently in progress, indicating that if the current bullish momentum sustains, Bitcoin’s price could potentially exceed $120,000 by April 2025. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 77, hinting that Bitcoin is not yet in an overbought condition. This suggests that there is still room for further growth despite the recent surge.
MVRV Indicator Pointers
Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio also provides insights into potential future gains. With the MVRV ratio currently at 2.7, it indicates that Bitcoin is not yet deemed overvalued. A ratio of 2.7 signifies that Bitcoin is likely in the early phases of a bull market, and despite successive ATHs, it has not yet reached a local peak.
Traders are advised to monitor any upticks in the MVRV ratio surpassing 3.7, as this could indicate an overvalued scenario for Bitcoin. The last instance of the MVRV ratio signalizing Bitcoin as overvalued was in early 2021, occurred a few months after the 2020 elections.
Google Trends and Retail FOMO
With Bitcoin approaching another ATH above $100,000, Google Trends data indicates a significant surge in the fear of missing out (FOMO) among retail traders. Search query volume for “Bitcoin” has reached its highest level in over a year.
A score of 100 on Google Trends signifies peak interest in Bitcoin, potentially reflecting a state of retail market euphoria. However, amidst Bitcoin’s burgeoning rally entering the early stages of a bull market, this heightened Google Trends score could signify increasing adoption rather than speculative frenzy.