Analysis Shows Kraken Whales Predict Bitcoin’s Next Price Milestone
Bitcoin reached a new high above $107,000 on December 16, driven by speculation about the US potentially establishing a national BTC reserve. This surge has buoyed hopes that the next target of $110,000 might be within reach. Interestingly, Kraken whales are setting their sights even higher, aiming for price levels between $150,000 and $160,000.
Experts, including BTC on-chain analyst Bitcoindata21, noted that sell orders from Kraken whales above $150,000 resemble a pattern observed earlier in 2024 when Bitcoin’s price momentum stalled below $80,000. This analysis suggests that these sell orders could act as potential resistance points, slowing down Bitcoin’s upward trajectory in the coming months.
Bitcoin’s Surging Demand and Market Dynamics
The recent ATH of Bitcoin above $107,000 can be attributed to increasing demand in the spot market. Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s research head, observed a reduction in sell pressure from major market players as demand for Bitcoin continues to rise.
“Bitcoin OTC desks have witnessed a significant monthly balance decrease of -25,000 Bitcoin, marking the largest decline this year. Their overall balance has dwindled by 40,000 Bitcoin since November 20.”
The decline in Over the Counter (OTC) Desk Balances, which represents sell pressure from significant players not utilizing centralized exchanges, indicates a positive trajectory for Bitcoin’s price movement. This increased appetite among investors for Bitcoin could propel it towards the anticipated price range of $120,000 to $150,000.
Moreover, the current price surge appears to be influenced by the growing likelihood, as reflected by Polymarket’s odds, of the US establishing a BTC reserve. The odds, rallying from 25% to a peak of 40% on Monday, align closely with Bitcoin’s price surge from $94,000 to over $107,000 during the same period.
While the odds have slightly retreated to 38% with Bitcoin dipping to $106,500, there’s a strong indication that the US BTC reserve could be a crucial catalyst propelling Bitcoin towards the projected targets of $120,000 to $150,000 or beyond.
However, despite the optimistic outlook, concerns about a potential pullback persist. Elevated profitability indicators, such as aSOPR, historically signal a local peak for Bitcoin when holders start cashing out. Currently, aSOPR is nearing the first band, hinting that a market correction could still be looming in the near future.