Despite currently trading between $90k and $100k, there is speculation that Bitcoin [BTC] might see a substantial increase to $200k by the end of 2025. This forecast comes from an anonymous market analyst known as Stockmoney Lizards.
In his analysis, he mentioned,
“We are only halfway there in terms of reaching the peak… The top of the channel hasn’t been hit yet; there hasn’t been any RSI-based top signal, and the price is still comfortably above the blue channel after a brief retest. The target by the end of the year is $200k.”
A visual representation was provided, showcasing historical RSI levels (indicated by red/green arrows) that corresponded to overbought (indicating a bearish reversal) and oversold (indicating a bullish reversal) conditions linked to previous Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms.
According to this analysis, there hasn’t been a bearish reversal signal flagged by the RSI yet, suggesting that Bitcoin may still have room to grow before it reaches its peak.
Potential for Further Upside?
Based on this assessment, it was implied that Bitcoin was potentially undervalued at its current price. Using another valuation model, the True MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, supported this suggestion.
Historically, a True MVRV value of 2 indicates local tops, while a value of 4 or higher signifies cycle tops.
In March and December 2024, Bitcoin’s local peaks aligned with an MVRV of 2. As of now, the MVRV stands at 1.7, indicating that there is still significant growth potential for Bitcoin in terms of price movement.
Another significant point to note is that the 200-week MA (moving average), commonly used to identify the bottom of Bitcoin cycles, has risen to $43k. This indicates that the next bear market phase might bottom out above $40k before initiating another bullish phase.
However, it’s important to acknowledge that Bitcoin does face certain short-term risks. Reports from crypto trading firm QCP Capital suggest that the presidential inauguration of Donald Trump and the expected slow pace of Fed rate cuts could expose Bitcoin to substantial price swings.
In a recent market update shared on Telegram, the firm stated,
“We anticipate increased volatility before and after the inauguration as the markets react to a new term under Trump. We remain cautious regarding potential downward movements given the repeated tests around the $90k mark for Bitcoin.”