Bitcoin [BTC] has achieved a fresh peak just as the U.S. presidential elections concluded, with Donald Trump emerging as the clear winner.
Historical data indicates that the months of November and December typically exhibit strong upward trends in the cryptocurrency market.
Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, has emphasized that the upcoming gains may not surpass 30%-40%, contrasting the remarkable 368% surge witnessed in the previous cycle.
Nevertheless, the Open Interest has surged to a new record of $45.8 billion, with Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high of $76.4k, indicating a robust optimistic sentiment. Furthermore, the on-chain metrics have not yet reached levels typical of a market peak.
Surge in Futures Open Interest Exceeds Previous Peaks
Over the past three years, the Open Interest has maintained a consistent upwards trajectory. The rally from October 2023 to March 2024 elevated the OI from $11.9 billion to $38 billion.
These previous highs were surpassed on October 17th and then again on November 7th.
The increasing prices and Open Interest levels suggest a healthy optimistic sentiment, although the phase of price discovery may be accompanied by significant volatility. Traders should be wary of substantial pullbacks in the upcoming months.
At the moment, some short traders seem eager to go against the recent bullish momentum displayed by BTC over the preceding three weeks. The liquidation map revealed a concentration of highly leveraged liquidations around $75,740.
Similar high-level liquidations were noted at $73,205, but a drop to $70k would likely result in more severe consequences than a sustained uptrend, given the current circumstances.
NUPL Indicates Early Bullish Stage of Past Market Cycles
The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) currently stands at 0.559. This level has also been observed in December 2016 when Bitcoin was priced at $900, and in November 2020 at $15.4k.
Previously, the NUPL had peaked at 0.793 and 0.748 during the last two market cycles. A level around 0.7 would signal that a notable percentage of investors are in profit, potentially indicating the conclusion of the current bullish run.
There is still a considerable distance to cover before reaching that threshold, prompting speculation about whether BTC will peak after a moderate 30%-40% increase.