Examining past trends, Bitcoin [BTC] seems to be approaching the final phase before the ultimate surge in this cycle’s bull run.
Many analysts are eyeing Q4 2024 as a potential breakout period from the 6-month-long price range.
If this scenario unfolds, a bullish breakout may kick off BTC’s next and final price surge for this cycle. Nonetheless, the general consensus among market cycle experts is that BTC might hit its peak around Q3/Q4 2025.
So, what is the potential peak for Bitcoin in this cycle?
Exploring BTC’s Maximum Potential: Could It Reach $200K?
According to the Bitcoin power law model, the tentative estimate stands at approximately $400K provided historical trends persist.
Historically, BTC has consistently touched the resistance level outlined by the model and peaked in previous cycles, excluding the one in 2021.
If history repeats itself, the model suggests a probable target of $400K, a view supported by analyst Ali Martinez. The Stock-Over-Flow (S/F) model also hinted at a target near $400K.
Conversely, Stockmoney Lizards, another BTC analyst, proposed a peak around $200K–$260K by October 2025.
“We are now entering what could potentially be the final surge of this Bitcoin cycle. The expected peak is around September to October 2025. Personally, I foresee Bitcoin reaching somewhere between $200,000 and $260,000.”
The analyst arrived at the October 2025 timeframe based on past patterns, with BTC historically hitting its peak 48 months after the previous high.
Remarkably, Stockmoney Lizards’ price target closely aligned with that of Standard Chartered Bank, which anticipated BTC reaching $250K by the close of 2025.
In their 2024 projections, the bank anticipated BTC surpassing $125K should Trump secure the election. Conversely, if historical trends repeated, Stockmoney Lizards estimated $100K per BTC by the year-end.
Currently, BTC is trading at $65K. Nevertheless, the larger economic landscape is increasingly shaping up to support the asset.
Following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy shift on September 18, China introduced a robust economic stimulus package to jumpstart its economy.
Industry experts are optimistic that these macroeconomic updates could serve as a significant tailwind for BTC’s upward trajectory.