Recent data analysis on the blockchain suggested that Bitcoin [BTC] is currently challenging a crucial resistance level, the breach of which could potentially pave the way for a significant surge in its price.
According to insights from the on-chain analyst Checkmate, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for short-term holders is currently undergoing a retest against the 155-day moving average (MA).
Historically, exceeding this moving average has initiated what the analyst described as a ‘substantial rally’ in Bitcoin’s price.
What Lies Ahead for BTC?
To provide context, the MVRV ratio is a metric used to assess whether BTC is trading above or below its fair value. MVRV ratios above 1 indicate that most holders are currently holding unrealized profits.
Conversely, ratios below 1 indicate that short-term investors are, on average, holding at a loss. This often occurs during price consolidation phases, signaling undervaluation of BTC.
Aside from the valuation aspect, the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV serves as a significant level of support and resistance when observed in conjunction with the 155-day MA. At present, this metric is inching closer to 1 and approaching a crossover with the 155-day MA.
An evaluation of historical data reveals that the previous instances when the STH MVRV surpassed the 155-day MA were witnessed in Q1 2024 and Q4 2023. During these periods, Bitcoin experienced substantial rallies, resulting in profitable outcomes for short-term investors.
If this pattern were to repeat, BTC could potentially be gearing up for another bullish phase. Should the resistance be overcome, Bitcoin might target price levels at $66K and $70K, as emphasized by Checkmate.
“If the bullish momentum persists and we establish a weekly higher high around $65.3k, it is reasonable to anticipate a move towards the All-Time High.”
Furthermore, the analyst pointed out,
“Short-Term Holders are expected to realize substantial profits between $66.1k and $70.8k, so it would be prudent to monitor their actions during this period.”
Nevertheless, the current price charts indicate a lack of strong momentum at lower timeframes and a significant resistance level at $65K, as pointed out by trader Skew.
The trader identified a stagnation in the RSI and weak trading volumes as factors that could impede Bitcoin’s ascent past $65k in the short run. Should this scenario unfold, the trader predicted a potential retracement towards $61K.