A projection suggests that Bitcoin’s[BTC] ability to handle more transactions could see an improvement by the end of 2026 due to an expected increase in block size to 4 MB.
As outlined in the most recent analysis by Mempool, a firm dedicated to studying the Bitcoin ecosystem, it was highlighted that the blockchain’s capacity fueled by data entry could see a significant boost in the coming years.
The report included a statement that hinted at the potential growth:
“Should we witness a substantial rise in Bitcoin’s utility for storing various types of data (resulting in regularly sized 4 MB blocks), the blockchain could hit 1TB by the end of 2026… We may anticipate a 1 TB blockchain within 2 – 4 years, and 2 TB within 7 – 9 years.”
For reference, the present block size hovers around 1.69 MB per block. Initially limited to 1 MB, a notable upgrade was introduced in 2017 called SegWit (Segregated Witness), which significantly expanded the network’s capabilities.
Rising Demand Past 1 MB
Following the implementation of SegWit, there was a surge in data entry protocols enabling additional diverse information (ranging from text to smart contracts) on the Bitcoin network.
Overall, the necessity for larger block space surpassed the previously set 1 MB threshold, as confirmed by miners and the network’s default configurations, as per Mempool’s findings.
“The median block size saw a continuous rise until block 400,000, at which point the 1 MB mark was hit, approximately 1.5 years prior to SegWit’s activation in block 481,824. Subsequent to SegWit’s integration, block sizes steadily climbed after an initial temporary dip.”
The growth in average block sizes ranged between 1.11 MB and 1.69 MB, indicating an increase in transactional data housed within each block.
Mempool suggested that this trend of extensive adoption of data entry protocols could push the block size up to 4 MB.
Nonetheless, not all developers within the Bitcoin core team share the same enthusiasm about the future prospects.
Renowned developer Luke Dash Jr stated that ordinals and entries are perceived as ‘spam’ and ‘an assault’ on the Bitcoin network. Dash has consistently advocated for capping block sizes below 1 MB to contain this ‘attack’ vulnerability.
Despite this, the majority of his X (previously Twitter) followers did not rally behind his proposal to limit the Bitcoin block size to 300 KB in the latter half of 2025.
In contrast to Bitcoin, Solana boasts a theoretical block size cap that can extend to 128 MB with heightened throughput. This infers that Solana holds more scalability potential but at the cost of reduced decentralization compared to BTC.
Nevertheless, the impact of differing opinions surrounding Bitcoin’s block size enlargement on its future scalability and adoption remains uncertain.