Over the past week, Bitcoin [BTC] has been trading in a range of $60,000 to $64,500, displaying choppy price movements without a clear trend, indicating market uncertainty.
However, there is potential for increased volatility in the upcoming week as trading volumes have surged by 55% according to CoinMarketCap data. Bitcoin has also experienced a 2.5% price increase in the last 24 hours, reaching $63,435.
The rise in trading volumes and price points towards traders embracing various narratives that could influence prices in the current week.
Federal Reserve Insights
The upcoming release of the September meeting minutes by the US Federal Reserve on 9th October is highly anticipated. The previous month witnessed the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020. These minutes could provide insights into potential rate adjustments during the November and December meetings.
Last month’s 50-basis point rate cut had an impact on Bitcoin price movements. The CME FedWatch Tool data indicates that 97% of investors foresee a 25 basis points rate cut by the Fed in November.
A further reduction in interest rates is likely to generate interest in risk assets like Bitcoin. Therefore, a dovish stance in the Fed minutes could potentially propel Bitcoin price gains.
CPI & PPI Figures
The release of US inflation data for September on 10th October is expected to show an annual inflation rate of 2.3%, a decline from the 2.5% reported in August. Additionally, the Core Inflation Rate year-on-year is projected to decrease to 3.1% from 3.2% in August.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) data, a predictor of inflation, will be unveiled on 11th October. Economists predict a drop in the year-on-year PPI data from 1.7% to 1.3%.
If the inflation data aligns with expectations or falls below them, it could drive Bitcoin gains. Conversely, if the data surpasses expectations, it may lead to Bitcoin’s volatility and a decline in prices.
BlackRock’s Q3 Performance
BlackRock, a $10 trillion asset manager and issuer of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), will publish its quarterly results this week. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holds 367,000 BTC valued at $22 billion, making its Q3 earnings influential on prices.
Later this week, JPMorgan will unveil its Q3 results and subsequently submit 13-F filings to the SEC, disclosing its exposure to Bitcoin ETFs. In the previous quarter, JPMorgan’s 13-F filing revealed Bitcoin ETF shares worth $760,000. As the largest US bank, any alteration in its Bitcoin ETF holdings could impact market volatility.
These three narratives are currently shaping activities in the Bitcoin futures market. BTC’s open interest has surged to its second-highest level this month at $34 million according to Coinglass data, indicating increased trader participation and positions.