During the last month, Aptos [APT] has witnessed a 3.87% increase in its price, accompanied by a daily rise of 3.44%, highlighting strong fundamentals not commonly seen in many alternative cryptocurrencies that are grappling with stability post-market downturns.
Nevertheless, the gains made could potentially be nullified if traders react negatively to the impending surge in token supply.
Unlocking Tokens and Potential Selling Pressure Surge
Reportedly, a substantial amount of APT tokens are poised to be released into the market on 11th September, leading to an increase in its available supply. This forthcoming unlock will bring about 11.31 million APT, equivalent to 2.32% of the circulating supply, valued at $66.05 million.
Token unlocks refer to the process of previously restricted tokens becoming accessible for trading or transfer. In the case of APT, recipients of this unlock include the community, private investors, the Aptos Foundation, and the team members.
Although the details of this unlock have been previously made known, a rise in the circulating supply often prompts significant holders to sell off their positions to lock in profits or reduce their holdings to mitigate losses.
If this surge in available tokens does not correspond with equal buying interest, the price of APT is likely to witness a decline.
Emerging Bearish Sentiment
As the token unlock event looms, bearish sentiment is becoming more apparent. This was evident from the disparity between the APT price and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF).
The CMF serves as an indicator that gauges the volume-weighted average of accumulation and distribution over a set period, aiding traders in evaluating the money flow into or out of an asset and signaling buying or selling pressure.
Presently, while the price of APT has shown a notable upward trajectory (the upward trend of the black line), the CMF has been moving downwards (the downward trend of the black line), leading to a significant disparity.
This disparity suggests that despite the price surge, there is diminishing financial backing for these gains—hinting at weakened liquidity from buyers and escalating selling interest.
Such conditions could potentially lead to a price downturn as sellers start to dominate over declining buyer momentum. If this trend persists beyond the token unlock event, the APT price is likely to begin heading south.
Nonetheless, CryptoCrypto has identified factors that could counterbalance this bearish outlook in the market.
Bullish Forces Remain Strong
CryptoCrypto’s evaluation of Aptos price movements and on-chain Open Interest (OI) metrics implies a probable rally as the token unlock nears—and potentially beyond, provided the bullish forces retain their vigor.
Currently, APT is demonstrating two prominent patterns: consolidating its price within a rectangular range while alternating within an ascending trendline.
This behavior indicates that investors are actively accumulating APT in anticipation of breaking out from both the ascending line and the consolidation phase.
If this breakout comes to fruition, CryptoCrypto has outlined six significant price targets: $7.45, $7.95, $8.61, $9.23, $9.66, and $10.41.
Open Interest data on Coinglass further bolsters this positive narrative, depicting a noteworthy surge in positivity—OI has surged by 8.59%, reaching $90.64 million.
Conversely, if bearish pressures take charge, APT could potentially breach the lower boundary of the consolidation channel, possibly dipping to $4.32 from an initial $5.73.