Mark Yusko, the CEO and creator of investment advisory company Morgan Creek Capital, has suggested that the cryptocurrency market may soon face a downturn by mid-2025.
During a recent conversation with Cointelegraph, Yusko indicated that,
“We are looking at another downturn beginning in mid-2025, which could lead us into another period of crypto winter.”
Yusko anticipated that the market would reach its peak once Bitcoin [BTC] reaches $150,000 and then experience a significant drop, referring to historical patterns linked with rapid price surges. He further mentioned,
“The $150,000 level is definitely achievable. It represents a 50% premium over the fair value. We are likely to reach that point and sadly transition into a bear market.”
Yusko also hinted that the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve in the US could hasten the achievement of the $150,000 target. Some other analysts have speculated a price of $1 million per BTC if such a reserve is established, although Yusko exhibited reservations regarding such an optimistic price projection.
Current BTC Market Position
As Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 milestone, the number of forecasts suggesting an upcoming market peak has risen. Some have pointed towards March 2025, while others have highlighted the third or fourth quarter of the same year as potential turning points for Bitcoin.
Yusko’s forecast of a downturn by mid-2025 represents the newest timeline for a bearish trend. However, do the on-chain metrics align with this prediction?
One of the key indicators, the MVRV-Z score, indicates that Bitcoin still has room for growth before reaching its peak. This valuation metric accurately predicted the previous market tops when it surpassed 7 (upper limit).
Currently at 3, the metric is mimicking patterns seen in December 2020. In the previous cycle, it peaked at 7 (in March 2021) and 4 (in October 2021).
Additionally, an effective indicator, the Pi Cycle Top, which relies on the intersection of two long-term moving averages, is currently indicating a significant gap. This suggests that there is still ample opportunity for growth before a potential peak is reached.
Historically, a Bitcoin peak and an ensuing ‘bear market phase’ have consistently begun the year following a halving event.
Despite this, some analysts argue that Bitcoin might not witness as severe a bearish phase as in previous cycles due to increased involvement from institutional investors.
However, the exact timing of the 2025 market peak and the intensity of the subsequent bear phase remain uncertain. What is evident, though, is that according to on-chain metrics, Bitcoin still has room to appreciate.