The direction of Bitcoin’s [BTC] price movement appears uncertain in current times. With a 12.42% decrease over the past month, the asset has been facing challenges in maintaining a positive trend, showing a modest 0.26% increase in the last 24 hours at the time of reporting.
Despite prevailing uncertainties, there are indications of a potential significant price surge for BTC, as both retail investors and large holders show noticeable buying activities. Yet, concerns around low liquidity levels pose a threat to the likelihood of such a rally.
Sell-Offs by U.S. Investors and Institutions
Recent data indicates a decrease in interest from U.S. retail and institutional investors over the last 24 hours.
The Coinbase Premium Index (CPI), which monitors U.S. retail investor behavior on Coinbase compared to other platforms, indicates increased selling pressure as the CPI fell below zero.
This shift follows a bullish sentiment observed on February 17th, coinciding with a substantial price surge in the crypto market. However, ETF activity hints at a more pessimistic outlook.
In February, inflows of $70.60 million were recorded in spot BTC ETFs, signaling buying interest. Nevertheless, a significant outflow of $129.10 million on the 18th pointed to a withdrawal of BTC from these institutions.
This selling trend by institutional investors manifested as continuous market outflows from the 10th to the 13th of February.
Consistent Bullish Sentiment
Despite recent selling activities, positive sentiment persists among some market participants. According to CryptoQuant, addresses associated with over-the-counter (OTC) trades for long-term holding have been amassing a considerable amount of BTC.
At the time of analysis, these addresses had accumulated over 28,000 BTC, valued at more than $2.6 billion, potentially leading to a supply shortage that could reduce the circulating supply of BTC.
Similar buying trends can be discerned in the spot market, with a net purchase of $314.70 million more BTC than sales in the past week.
Data on asset netflows indicates a consistent accumulation of BTC since January 2025, further reinforcing the positive outlook.
Risk of Price Movement Impacted by Low Liquidity Levels
Binance’s liquidation heatmap on the monthly timeframe reveals a notable liquidity level around $92,930.28, with BTC buy orders totaling $136.1 million.
Typically, these liquidity levels serve as attractive points that can influence price movements, potentially leading BTC to drop to this level before experiencing a swift rebound.
Currently, the market sentiment appears mixed, and additional data along with on-chain activities will likely offer clarity on the future direction of BTC.