The anticipation of a potential approval for a Solana[SOL] exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2025 has sparked enthusiasm in the market, causing Polymarket’s odds to rise to 85%.
This shift signifies a growing confidence in regulatory progress and an increasing institutional interest in Solana as a valid investment option.
With several asset management companies applying for a position in Solana ETF, the big question is: Will the SEC grant approval?
Market Outlook and Institutional Engagement
The notable surge in Polymarket’s likelihood of a Solana ETF approval reflects a significant change in sentiment. Just a few months back, the probability was a mere 3%.
This shift is a result of the heightened institutional interest, with major players like Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital all filing applications for a spot in the Solana ETF.
These application submissions are currently under review by the SEC, and crucial deadlines are approaching in early 2025. Furthermore, potential regulatory adjustments following the departure of SEC Chair Gary Gensler on January 20, 2025, could impact the approval process.
If a more crypto-friendly regulator is appointed, this could pave the way for a Solana ETF approval, similar to the recent endorsements of Bitcoin[BTC] and Ethereum[ETH] spot ETFs.
Market Response Contrary to Solana ETF Predictions
The price of Solana has shown increased volatility in response to the ETF speculation. As of the latest data, SOL was priced at $197.53, marking a 2.91% decline, with highs reaching $203.84 and lows dropping to $176.00.
Currently, the 50-day Moving Average (MA) is at $211.61, while the 200-day MA stands at $182.08, indicating a crucial juncture for price movements.
Analysis of Solana’s price chart by CryptoCrypto suggests that the coin recently tested the 200-day MA, a significant support level.
A breach below this level could signal a more profound correction, while a rebound may position SOL to reattempt breaking through the resistance zone of $225-$250.
Moreover, the MACD indicator indicates a growing bearish trend as the signal line falls below the MACD line.
On-chain Data: Solana Network Expansion
An in-depth examination of on-chain statistics from Glassnode reveals a decrease in new Solana addresses, correlating with the recent price pullback.
The number of new addresses has declined from a peak of 9 million in January to approximately 5 million, indicating a slowdown in network activity.
Despite this decline, the overall trend since late 2024 shows a robust adoption of the network.
If the Solana ETF is approved, this metric could steadily grow as institutional investors inject fresh capital into the ecosystem.
Historically, ETF approvals have catalyzed both price surges and network expansions, mirroring Bitcoin’s rise post-ETF approval.
What Lies Ahead for the Solana ETF?
With Polymarket’s odds at 85%, industry experts are hopeful about the approval of a Solana ETF in 2025.
Nevertheless, regulatory obstacles persist, particularly concerning classification and custody issues. The SEC’s stance on Ripple[XRP] ETFs might set a precedent for Solana’s destiny.
If approved, a Solana ETF could enhance market credibility, increase liquidity, and hasten mainstream adoption.
Investors should monitor SEC decisions, key technical support levels, and ongoing institutional activities in the upcoming months.