Following the detention of Pavel Durov in August 2024, there was a notable downtrend in the value of Toncoin [TON]. Subsequently, more than 890,000 TON were liquidated, indicating a significant spike in market volatility.
Furthermore, the recent transfer of over 240,000 Toncoin to exchange platforms within the last week has intensified selling pressures. This shift points towards investor anxiety, reflecting clear alterations in the trajectory of Toncoin’s price trend post these occurrences.
The substantial decrease in the holdings of Toncoin due to these large volumes entering the market has resulted in a visible price drop.
This particular pattern suggests the possibility of further declines for TON if the selling momentum persists. Nevertheless, it could also signal a chance for purchase for those anticipating a resurgence in the market.
Open Interest Delta highlights a possible reversal
Despite the selling spree, TON’s weekly Open Interest (OI) Delta has displayed heightened volatility, coupled with an expanding OI. Historically, such developments have often preceded an imminent price surge.
In mid-2024, a surge in OI Delta corresponded with a notable increase in Toncoin’s price. Recent upticks in OI around January 25, 2025, demonstrated a potential reversal followed by a bullish trend on the horizon.
Should this correlation persist, monitoring OI fluctuations alongside price movements could offer valuable insights into the short-term market dynamics of TON.
The analysis of liquidity and position flow will be critical in determining if the ongoing OI trend has the potential to drive prices higher.
Additionally, TON’s price is approaching a key support level at $4.80, indicating a likelihood of a reversal. TON has repeatedly tested this level, showcasing resilience on each occasion.
With TON nearing this crucial support band once more, the probability of a rebound increases.
Historical data shows that interactions at this level have often led to recoveries, implying a positive response in TON’s price. The MACD indicates convergence, hinting at forthcoming optimistic momentum.
If history repeats itself, this might signify a price surge for TON, offering an entry opportunity for investors monitoring these thresholds.
Moreover, TON’s address count witnessed a steady rise, escalating from 105 million addresses on October 22 to 139 million by January 22.
This consistent uptrend represented an increase of over 32% in less than four months.
The uptick in unique addresses likely signified heightened engagement and interest in the TON network, which could enhance market confidence and potentially lay the groundwork for a bullish scenario in Toncoin’s price moving forward.
These metrics are pivotal in monitoring activity levels and the overall health of the network.