The apprehension surrounding Toncoin [TON] intensified after Pavel Durov’s arrest in August 2024, resulting in a notable sell-off of over 890,000 TON and a surge in market volatility.
The recent movement of more than 240,000 Toncoin onto exchanges within the last week has further accentuated the selling pressure, indicating investor concerns and a visible shift in Toncoin’s price trajectory downwards post these incidents.
The depletion of Toncoin holdings due to these substantial amounts entering the market has led to a significant price drop.
This pattern implies a potential continuation of declines for TON if the selling pressure persists; however, it could also offer a chance for buyers anticipating a market rebound.
Open Interest Delta Anticipating a Reversal Signal
Despite the sell-off, TON’s weekly Open Interest (OI) Delta has shown increased volatility alongside a growing OI, historically indicating an imminent price upsurge.
Previous instances have seen TON’s price spike when the OI Delta increased in mid-2024. Similarly, recent rises in OI on January 25, 2025, suggest a possible reversal followed by a bullish trend in the near future.
By monitoring OI changes in conjunction with price movements, one can gain insights into TON’s short-term market dynamics. Liquidity and position flow will play a critical role in determining if the ongoing OI trend has the potential to trigger higher prices.
Moreover, TON’s price nearing a critical support level at $4.80 hints at a potential reversal. The resilience shown by TON each time it tested this zone in the past suggests a likely bounce once again.
Previous interactions at this level have resulted in recoveries, indicating a positive response in TON’s price. The convergence on the MACD signals upcoming positive momentum.
If history is any indication, this could lead to a price surge for TON, presenting an opportunity for investors eyeing these levels.
Furthermore, TON’s address count has consistently risen, from 105 million addresses on October 22 to 139 million by January 22, representing a growth of over 32% in under four months.
The increase in unique addresses signifies heightened activity and interest in the TON network, potentially boosting market confidence and supporting a bullish outlook for Toncoin’s price ahead. Monitoring these metrics is essential for gauging engagement and network vitality.