Bitcoin [BTC] has managed to maintain its position above $100,000 in recent days, with its future trajectory hinging on the upcoming Federal Reserve rate adjustment.
Following the release of last week’s U.S. inflation and job market data, the market was factoring in a 96% probability of a 25bps interest rate cut during the imminent Federal Reserve decision slated for December 18th.
Potential BTC Trajectory
What path will BTC take next? As per analysis from CrypNuevo, a prominent BTC trader, the most probable scenario involves a move to target liquidity at $103,000-$104,000, drawing insights from recent patterns. He noted,
“There have been numerous instances of short liquidations occurring around the $103k level. This could present an opportunity to target them… We have observed a consistent pattern of liquidation cluster targeting in the recent days.”
Presently, there are still significant leveraged short positions situated at the $103,000-$104,000 range, aligning with CrypNuevo’s forecast.
On the 12-hour chart, BTC has been in a tight consolidation phase around the midpoint of its upward channel. The projected targets of $103,000-$104,000 are approximately 2% away from this midpoint.
While the upper price target of $107,000 is 5% distant from the midpoint, it might not elicit as strong a response from trading activity due to lower liquidity compared to the $103,000 range.
If this scenario unfolds, BTC could touch the $103,000-$104,000 range to address liquidity concerns before retracing slightly. Historical data suggests that retracements have ceased near the lower end of the channel, potentially stabilizing around $97,000. It is probable that Bitcoin will continue to move within this established range.
The decreasing global longs indicator from Hyblock supported the notion of a forthcoming move towards the lower bound of the channel following a spike to $103,000. This indicator typically rises when BTC declines and falls during periods of price surges.
At present, the indicator is approaching its minimum point, suggesting a probable reversal that could signal a retracement for BTC, acting as a potential bull trap.
In essence, BTC might experience a modest upward shift beyond the midpoint to liquidate short positions at $103,000-$104,000 before aiming for leveraged long positions close to the channel’s lower boundary around $97,000.
Nevertheless, a breakout in either direction would nullify the previously outlined range-bound perspective.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are purely the writer’s opinion and are not intended as financial, investment, or trading advice.