Is Bitcoin’s Rally Losing Steam? Key Metrics to Monitor

Is Bitcoin’s rally cooling off? Key metrics to keep an eye on

Following a period of consecutive all-time highs, Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be taking a momentary pause, with signs of a slowdown in its price momentum. The primary cryptocurrency recently reached an unprecedented peak of $93,477 on the 13th of November.

Subsequently, it has witnessed a slight 2.8% retracement and has settled above the $90,000 level. Currently, Bitcoin is being exchanged at $90,959, indicating a marginal 0.6% uptick in the last 24 hours.

Is Further Upside Movement Feasible?

Amidst this altered price trajectory of Bitcoin, analysts are scrutinizing the potential for additional gains in the market.

Yonsei Dent, an analyst at CryptoQuant, discussed Bitcoin’s present situation, emphasizing the MVRV ratio – an essential on-chain metric that compares realized value against market value to assess market conditions of overvaluation or undervaluation.

Dent pointed out that historical data shows peaks in the MVRV ratio typically align with market peaks. In the years 2013, 2017, and 2020, Bitcoin’s market cycle peaks coincided with a downtrend seen in the MVRV ratio.

He highlighted that though the MVRV ratio reached a peak of 2.78 in March 2024, just below the historical downtrend line, it has recovered to 2.6 following Bitcoin’s recent surge.

Dent suggested that a monthly moving average golden cross over the annual moving average could indicate an imminent upward movement.

While the prediction of whether the MVRV will hit the 2.9–3.0 range remains uncertain, it hints at the possibility of further price appreciation for Bitcoin.

Crucial Metrics for Anticipating Bitcoin’s Future Trajectory

Alongside the analysis of the MVRV ratio, exploring other essential Bitcoin metrics is vital to gauge the cryptocurrency’s outlook.

As per CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s outflows from exchanges have consistently risen in tandem with its price in the past week. Nevertheless, this trend seems to be decelerating at the beginning of the current week.

On the 17th of November, Sunday, total Bitcoin outflows from exchanges stood at around 13,617 BTC, a considerable drop from the over 30,000 BTC recorded the previous week.

This decline in outflows may signal a shift in investor sentiment, indicating that market participants could be pausing their accumulation or refraining from withdrawing assets from exchanges.

This development might reflect caution among investors, signaling a phase of consolidation or reduced demand pressure.

Another metric of interest is Bitcoin’s open interest, reported by Coinglass. Bitcoin’s open interest has surged by 2.76%, reaching a current value of $56.22 billion.

This rise corresponds with an increase in Bitcoin’s open interest volume, which has jumped by 16.42% to $61.83 billion. A surge in open interest suggests increased market participation, often mirroring heightened trading activity and investor engagement.

Nevertheless, a spike in open interest, especially in the futures market, could introduce potential market volatility. With more traders entering derivative positions, the market could witness sharp price fluctuations in response to significant market movements or shifts in trader sentiment.

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