Aptos [APT] has shown remarkable performance in recent weeks amidst the prevailing market sentiment. In the last month, the asset has recorded a gain of 24.34%, with weekly increments reaching a significant 12.76%.
Currently, spot traders are in control, aiding APT in achieving a modest daily rise of 1.08%.
Nevertheless, doubts linger regarding the sustainability of this upward trend. The core question revolves around whether the positive momentum can hold up against the negative pressure from the derivatives market.
Spot Traders Dominate the Bullish Trend
The recent surge in APT’s value can be largely credited to spot traders who have adopted a bullish position.
Data from Exchange Netflow, a measure tracking the movement of APT between crypto exchanges, exhibited negative values for two consecutive days.
On November 16th and 17th, withdrawals of $2.03 million and $938.67K APT, respectively, were noted, indicating a shift in trader sentiment.
A negative Exchange Netflow generally suggests a transfer of assets from exchange wallets to private ones, hinting at accumulation for long-term holding.
This decrease in circulating supply on exchanges has resulted in a supply squeeze, often leading to upward price momentum.
Derivative Traders Maintain Aggressive Stance
Derivative traders continue to exert influence with a bearish outlook, as crucial on-chain indicators like Open Interest, Liquidations, and the Long-to-Short ratio point towards diminishing confidence in a price surge.
Coinglass data revealed an 8.03% drop in Open Interest to $255.58 million, highlighting that short traders now dominate unsettled contracts.
Concurrently, long positions facing liquidations have risen, with $589.38K worth of positions being cleared. This reflects the market’s turn against traders anticipating a price rise, heightening bearish sentiments.
Furthermore, the Long-to-Short ratio fell to 0.8822, indicating the prevalence of short traders over long ones at present, adding pressure against any potential bullish drive and reducing the likelihood of a sustained rally in the short term.
Forecasting APT’s Next Moves
Analyzing the charts, APT is currently in a consolidation phase, trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern post a bounce off the $14.08 resistance level.
This pattern often anticipates a substantial market upsurge, hinting at a potential breakout for APT.
For a sustained upward trajectory, APT might witness a slight dip to retest the $11.52 support level before aiming higher, or it could surge directly towards the $14.08 resistance zone.
However, the $14.08 resistance level might trigger considerable selling pressure, possibly leading to a minor pullback.
If the bullish momentum persists, APT could breach this level, resulting in a projected gain of 37.27% and establishing a new monthly peak at $19.37.
Considering these dynamics, spot traders currently appear to hold an advantage, which could strengthen further should the prevailing bearish on-chain metrics start shifting towards the positive.