As the U.S. presidential elections draw near, former President Donald Trump is currently in the lead on major prediction platforms. Polymarket shows Trump with a 56.5% edge, while Vice President Kamala Harris trails behind at 43.6%.
A similar trend can be observed on Kalshi, where Trump holds a 52% advantage over Harris’s 48%. These prediction markets collectively indicate growing optimism towards Trump potentially reclaiming the Oval Office.
Controversy Surrounding Prediction Markets
However, as Trump’s odds continue to rise in prediction markets, concerns have surfaced regarding potential manipulation issues.
Suspicions revolve around specific accounts, notably one identified as “Fredi9999,” which analysts and blockchain investigators suspect might belong to a single investor working actively to influence the odds in favor of Trump.
These developments have raised questions about the transparency and accuracy of predictions on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Further adding to these concerns, Mark Cuban has hinted at the possibility of foreign investments influencing the outcomes, especially since U.S. citizens are barred from participating, raising doubts about the reliability of these betting odds.
“From what we see, most of the funds flowing into Polymarket are international, so it may not be a reliable indicator.”
Founder of Kalshi Addresses Rumors
In response to these rumors, co-founder Tarek Mansour took to social media to clarify that Trump’s odds are not being artificially inflated by a specific group of individuals.
He emphasized that the situation is quite the opposite, and no foul play is involved.
The involvement of cryptocurrencies in this election cycle has been markedly different, with key figures from the industry actively participating in campaign funding. Notably, the Winklevoss twins, founders of Gemini, made headlines by individually donating $1 million in Bitcoin to endorse Trump.
On the flip side, Harris received support from Ripple’s co-founder Chris Larsen, who contributed $10 million in XRP to her campaign.
These substantial contributions underscore how cryptocurrency leaders are increasingly shaping the political landscape by donating digital assets.
Division within the Crypto Community Ahead of the Election
The split within the cryptocurrency community became evident as several industry executives publicly voiced their support for their preferred candidates.
For instance, Anthony Scaramucci from SkyBridge expressed his endorsement for X, stating,
“Harris is set to win.”
In contrast, Dan Held mentioned,
Impact of the Election on Bitcoin
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has experienced significant fluctuations in the lead-up to the U.S. elections. After reaching a peak of $73,000, Bitcoin saw a decline, with the current value standing at $69,085.85.
Historically, Bitcoin has tended to perform positively during favorable election prospects for Trump, suggesting a potential price surge if he secures victory.
Some analysts predict a potential rally towards $100k should Trump emerge victorious.
As Election Day approaches, the focus remains on how the election outcome could influence the trajectory of Bitcoin.