As the countdown to the Presidential Elections in the United States enters its final two weeks, the competition between the top candidates is escalating by the day.
Various prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, are indicating a favorable outcome for Donald Trump. Currently, Trump is forecasted to have a support level of approximately 62.3%, while Kamala Harris trails behind at 38.3%.
In the most recent update from Kalshi, the data continues to lean in favor of Trump with 59% compared to Harris at 41%.
Executives at Bitwise Express Confidence in Trump
With the rising prospects of a Trump victory, the Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, a crypto asset management firm, has shared an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s potential surge. He envisions the cryptocurrency reaching a high of $92,000 if Trump emerges victorious in November.
In a recent communication, Jeff Park stated,
“Observing the fluctuating $BTC price alongside Trump’s odds (via @Polymarket) between 8/15 and 10/20 highlights significant swings, particularly during shifts in leadership between Harris and Trump. Through applying probability calculations reminiscent of merger arbitrage, I foresee that a triumph for Trump could propel BTC to around $92,000. Interpreting this information is subjective.”
Furthermore, Erik Finman, a millionaire who made his fortune from Bitcoin, is also optimistic about the potential impact of a Trump win on BTC’s value. He expressed,
“His proposed policies are expected to catalyze the crypto market, fostering extensive growth across various sectors.”
Alignment Across CoinShares Reports and Investor Speculations
A recent report by CoinShares highlighted a notable increase in digital asset inflows amounting to $407 million, largely influenced by growing investor interest linked to a potential Republican victory.
This surge reflects an emerging confidence in the likelihood of favorable regulatory adjustments under a Republican-controlled government.
Furthermore, Alex Thorn, the Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, introduced a comparative analysis of the candidates’ stances on cryptocurrency through a policy scorecard. This analysis sheds light on how each candidate’s regulatory approach could shape the future of the industry.
Bitcoin’s price dynamics also corroborate this narrative. Despite facing resistance around the $60k mark for an extended period, there was a notable surge past $65k, coinciding with the increase in Trump’s electoral prospects.
Unpacking the Role of Elon Musk
An intriguing factor in boosting Trump’s campaign momentum seems to be the influence of Elon Musk.
Musk made a public appearance at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, showing his support for the Republican nominee by wearing a ‘Make America Great Again’ hat and dubbing himself as ‘Dark MAGA,’ solidifying his endorsement of the candidate.
Future Implications for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has recently displayed bullish tendencies following the strengthening lead of Trump in prediction markets and exit surveys. As of the latest data, the cryptocurrency is valued at just under $67,500.
Further affirming this bullish sentiment, insights from IntoTheBlock analyzed by CryptoCrypto indicate that a significant 95.19% of Bitcoin holders are currently experiencing profits, with their holdings surpassing the initial purchase value.
In contrast, none of the holders are facing losses, underscoring prevailing positive market sentiment and hinting at potential future price escalations for Bitcoin.