The upcoming United States Presidential Elections are creating a heightened sense of competition between the top two candidates as the event draws near.
Prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are both favoring Donald Trump to emerge victorious. Presently, Trump’s predicted support stands at approximately 62.3%, with Kamala Harris trailing at 38.3%.
Recent data from Kalshi continues to reinforce this trend, showing Trump at 59% and Harris at 41%.
Bitwise Executives Back Trump’s Hike in Odds
In light of the increasing odds in favor of Trump, the Chief of Alpha Strategies at crypto investment firm Bitwise is envisioning a potential surge in Bitcoin [BTC]. He anticipates that the cryptocurrency could reach a peak of $92,000 if Trump secures a win in November.
In a recent commentary, Jeff Park highlighted,
“Observing the movement of $BTC price relative to Trump’s odds (via @Polymarket) from 8/15 to 10/20 shows some significant fluctuations—especially during the instances where Harris and Trump took the lead alternately. By applying probabilistic calculations akin to merger arbitrage, I predict that a Trump victory could propel BTC to approximately $92,000. Interpret this as you see fit.”
Moreover, Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman expresses his belief that a Trump victory could push BTC’s value to $100,000.
In his words,
“His strategies are poised to spark a surge in the crypto market, driving substantial growth overall.”
Reports from CoinShares and Other Investors Echo Similar Sentiments
A recent report from CoinShares disclosed a notable increase in inflows of digital assets, totaling $407 million. This surge is attributed to heightened investor interest linked to a potential victory for the Republicans.
This surge signifies a growing confidence in the potential regulatory modifications under a GOP-led government.
Additionally, Alex Thorn, who heads Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, introduced a policy evaluation card comparing the stances of the two presidential candidates on cryptocurrencies. This comparison sheds light on how the strategies of each candidate could impact the future of the industry.
This inclination was further evidenced by the price movement of BTC, which faced challenges in surpassing the $60k threshold for some time. However, shortly after, it surged past $65k – a surge that aligned with the increased electoral odds favoring Trump.
Could Elon Musk Have a Role to Play?
An intriguing factor in boosting the momentum of Trump’s campaign could be attributed to Elon Musk’s influence.
Musk made an appearance at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, endorsing the Republican candidate by sporting a ‘Make America Great Again’ hat and identifying himself as ‘Dark MAGA,’ solidifying his support for Trump.
What Awaits BTC in the Future?
Bitcoin has displayed a somewhat bullish trend lately, buoyed by Trump’s noticeable lead in the prediction markets and exit surveys. At the moment, the cryptocurrency sits just below the value of $67,500.
Supporting this optimistic trend, data analyzed by CryptoCrypto using IntoTheBlock’s statistics reveals that a significant 95.19% of BTC owners are currently in a profitable position. This indicates that their Bitcoin holdings are worth more than what they initially paid.
In comparison, 0% of holders are in a loss position, underlining a strong market sentiment that hints at further potential price increases for Bitcoin.