Recent data indicates a notable increase in accumulation addresses for Bitcoin (BTC), indicating a growing trend towards ‘HODLing’. At the beginning of 2024, addresses holding at least 10 BTC without any outflows contained 1.5 million coins; currently, this number stands at 2.9 million.
Despite the ultra-bullish forecasts provided by the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart suggesting a target price of $288k or higher in this cycle, historical patterns hint that the cycle’s peak might be closer to $100k this time around.
Potential 40% Rally for Bitcoin Before Reaching Cycle Peak
A recent analysis by CryptoBullet highlighted a significant development in the weekly MACD indicator, showcasing a bullish crossover for the first time since October 2023. During the last such occurrence, Bitcoin witnessed a remarkable 172% rally within five months.
However, it’s crucial to note that the previous rally took place before a Bitcoin halving event. The question now arises whether a similar surge can be expected this time or if the subsequent upward momentum would mark a lower high on the MACD, potentially signaling the end of the bullish phase.
Considering multiple factors, CryptoBullet leans towards the latter scenario. Following a period of consolidation, a bullish MACD crossover post a rapid ascent is less likely to yield triple-digit percentage gains. The analyst’s chart analysis indicates a more plausible target of a 40% upward move from current levels.
Evaluating Bitcoin’s Current Price Targets
It’s an established notion that historical trends often repeat, echoing familiar patterns but not necessarily identical outcomes. For instance, during the 2017-18 bull market, a weekly MACD bullish crossover led to a substantial 617% increase, while a similar event in 2020 resulted in a 468% surge. Notably, the 172% rise in 2023 occurred before a halving event.
Reflecting on previous market cycles, Bitcoin soared by 190% from its $3.2k lows approximately 18 months before a halving event. This data suggests that the purported extension target of 40% for the upcoming leg, as outlined by CryptoBullet, may face potential recalibration.
Regardless, the current analysis supports the notion of a 40% increase as a feasible scenario, aligning well with Fibonacci extension levels displayed on the weekly chart analysis.
Disclaimer: The information provided is the author’s personal opinion and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.