Ethereum [ETH] appears to be following historical market trends as we approach the end of 2024, prompting traders to monitor closely for possible price decreases.
In the year 2016, ETH experienced notable declines in April, August, and December.
During this year, the digital currency has already faced setbacks in April and August, leading experts to consider the possibility of a similar drop occurring before the close of the year, potentially in December.
Although historical trends indicate a potential dip, the critical level to observe is $2,800. Should Ethereum successfully breach and maintain levels above this point, it might evade a more substantial decline.
Conversely, a failure to approach the $2,800 mark could result in ETH testing $2,300 and eventually $2,000 by the conclusion of the year.
Challenges faced by the ETH/BTC pair in surpassing the 50-day SMA
Another significant factor is the ETH/BTC pair’s struggle to exceed the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
In past cycles, a robust bullish trend commonly ensued once the ETH/BTC pair surpassed this SMA. However, this scenario has not unfolded yet, hinting that the market low may not have been established.
Historical data supports the notion that traders often rush into a bullish stance without waiting for clear confirmation.
Presently, competitive pressure from platforms like Solana and internal ecosystem hurdles are exerting bearish influence on Ethereum.
Considering the present price movements, Ethereum could potentially experience further downward trends.
Traders seeking to benefit from this situation might contemplate short positions, as additional declines are probable.
Simultaneously, the Ethereum Foundation has been actively realizing profits, with recent sales of 100 ETH contributing to the prevailing pessimism.
Whales maintaining long positions
Despite the aforementioned similarities, Ethereum has undergone significant transformations since 2016, such as the Merge and 4844 upgrade, altering its fundamental nature.
Even amidst the ongoing downtrend, there appears to be minimal alteration in whale activity.
Data sourced from Binance reveals that 73.14% of accounts continue to uphold long positions on Ethereum, showcasing confidence in its future potential.
While the immediate outlook may be bearish, these major investors indicate a continued belief in a potential recovery.
Once currency prices stabilize and both ETH/USDT and ETH/BTC establish their respective lows, traders may discover favorable opportunities for long-term investments.
Although Ethereum might encounter another decline before the conclusion of 2024, the overall long-term forecast remains positive.
Traders are advised to exercise caution in the short term, but the possibility of a resurgence presents promising prospects for those interested in long positions post-establishment of a definitive bottom.
The price trajectory of ETH continues to be closely observed within the cryptocurrency realm as the year comes to a close.