The TON network has witnessed a significant decrease in its daily active users, plummeting from a peak of over 5 million to 1.58 million, as reported by data from IntoTheBlock.
This substantial decline has sparked discussions about whether the previous excitement is fading away or if a new wave of enthusiasm is approaching.
An analysis of TON’s daily active addresses history reveals a series of rapid growth spurts, often linked to specific events or broader market thrill. In the initial phase, from late October to mid-December, user engagement remained relatively steady, with no major spikes.
However, the timeframe from late December to mid-March indicated a gradual rise, signaling a burgeoning interest among users.
From mid-March to late April, there was a sharp spike in daily active addresses, potentially fueled by price surges and intensified market attention. The period from May to early July exhibited fluctuations with short-lived peaks.
Another substantial surge was noted from late August to early October, marking the year’s peak activity levels.
Despite this, the user engagement has recently declined, stabilizing at 1.58 million—albeit higher than previous levels.
Price Movements and Ownership Concentration
At the time of reporting, TON was trading at $5.26, representing a decrease of -0.34% in the past 24 hours and an increase of 2.11% over the last week. The trading volume stands at $299.64 million, with an approximate total market capitalization of $13.32 billion.
Of note, a significant 91% of the token’s supply is in the hands of large holders, indicating a notable level of centralization.
While 73% of holders are experiencing losses and only 15% are in profit, the market sentiment remains cautious. The low price correlation with Bitcoin (at 0.12) suggests that TON’s movements are not heavily swayed by Bitcoin’s price trends.
Transactions exceeding $100,000 over the past week totaled $42.01 billion, but there was a net exchange outflow of $8.81 million, indicating more TON leaving exchanges than entering.
Analysis of On-chain Metrics
On-chain metrics for TON predominantly exhibit a bearish sentiment. Three bearish signals include: “In the Money” (-0.14), reflective of low profitability among holders; concentration (-0.04), hinting at centralization; and large transactions (-0.23), indicating reduced activity in big-money movements.
However, the sole bullish signal is net network growth (+2.97%), suggesting possible user expansion despite the current downtrends.
Futures open interest has seen fluctuations, with Coinglass data showing a peak above $300 million in early August, which has now decreased to $214.18 million, a 1.99% drop in recent trading.
While current metrics indicate a cooling phase, historical data suggests that TON’s user base could rapidly expand during periods of renewed interest or significant market developments.