The previous week saw a notable and optimistic performance from Bitcoin [BTC], with a rise of almost 10%, jumping from $62.5K to $69.4K driven by strong demand in the spot market.
This recent surge brought BTC within 7% of its all-time high (ATH) of $73.7K, achieved back in March.
Noted analyst Stockmoney Lizards has suggested that the bullish momentum gained last week could be further propelled by historical patterns related to US elections.
He highlighted that the bullish shift in BTC’s momentum occurred for the first time in the second half of 2024.
“The momentum is shifting towards a bullish trajectory”
Providing context, the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) serves as an indicator of momentum, evaluating BTC’s price concerning a recent midpoint and indicating whether it is oversold or overbought.
The current assessment on the 2-week chart displayed a rebound above the neutral 50-level, signaling an ongoing bullish reversal.
This scenario mirrored the trend observed in 2020 just before BTC broke out of its re-accumulation range, hinting at a potential bullish breakout.
BTC: Trends Before US Elections
The analyst also suggested that the explosive upward movements seen in Bitcoin prior to US elections might be seen once more.
In both 2016 and 2020, BTC witnessed a 10% and 18% surge, respectively, in the two weeks before the US elections.
If this pattern repeats in 2024, Stockmoney Lizards anticipated a new ATH might be reached prior to the elections.
“In 2024, this could imply a new ATH before the elections (+10% = $74,000) with significant growth in November and December.”
Yet, do on-chain metrics align with this positive forecast?
Starting from July, the general interest and network expansion within BTC have plateaued, as evident in the activity of daily active addresses.
While this might hinder a sharp uptrend for BTC, large investors have been actively increasing their holdings.
Over the past week, whales have been accumulating more BTC compared to retail investors, as shown by the favorable Whale vs. Retail Delta metric. This indicated strong accumulation by whales, affirming their confidence in a price rise.
However, a drop in the metric could suggest a probable retracement for BTC, with $66K marked as a critical level to watch in case of a short-term pullback.