Bitcoin [BTC] saw a significant 5% rise on the 14th of October, pushing it to revisit the $66K mark, with experts attributing this upturn to the impending U.S. elections.
The most recent upsurge has been termed a “Trump bump” by Quinn Thompson, the founder of Lekker Capital, amidst growing speculations of Trump’s potential victory in the upcoming elections.
Nevertheless, Kamala Harris’s recent commitment to backing a regulatory structure for cryptocurrencies has sparked optimism among some observers, hinting at a promising scenario for the industry come 2024.
Impact of the U.S. Elections
In the view of the crypto trading firm QCP Capital, the recent rally aligns with historical trends preceding the U.S. elections.
“The timing before the U.S. elections follows historical tendencies. In both 2016 and 2020, #BTC experienced a surge just three weeks prior to #Election2024 Day.”
In 2016, Bitcoin rose from $600 three weeks ahead of the U.S. elections and doubled by January 2017. Similarly, before the 2020 elections, BTC surged from $11K to $42K by January 2021.
The question arises: will history repeat itself in 2024? CryptoCrypto sought insights from Ryan Lee, the chief analyst at Bitget Research,
Lee pointed out the resilience of BTC against the backdrop of a strengthening U.S. dollar, indicating a possible bullish trend for the asset in the medium term.
He forecasted that BTC could either consolidate within a range or soar above $70K by the close of October.
“With key events like the upcoming November Fed meeting and the U.S. elections coinciding, we can anticipate heightened crypto market volatility. BTC’s price swings might vary between $58,000 and $69,000.”
Notably, the demand for BTC has surged in the last month, reaching levels reminiscent of April, marking a stark contrast from the low demand observed in Q2/Q3 of 2024.
Moreover, the recent hike in Bitcoin validated an ascending low trend, hinting at a potential shift in market structure and a conclusion to the re-accumulation phase observed since March.
However, the respected analyst Peter Brandt suggested that a significant market structure shift would only occur if BTC surged past $68.2K.
At present, BTC is valued at $65.6K, approximately 12% lower than its all-time high of $73.7K.