Bitcoin [BTC] experienced a notable 5% rally on the 14th of October, pushing its price to retest $66K amid speculation surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections.
According to Quinn Thompson, the founder of Lekker Capital, the recent surge in Bitcoin was dubbed a “Trump bump,” with expectations of Donald Trump prevailing in the U.S. elections driving market sentiment.
Conversely, Kamala Harris’s expressed support for a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies has led some analysts to believe that the 2024 elections could hold promising outcomes for the industry.
The Impact of U.S. Elections
Analysis from crypto trading firm QCP Capital suggests that the rally witnessed in Bitcoin aligns with historical trends observed preceding U.S. elections.
“The timing leading up to the U.S. elections follows patterns seen in the past. Notably in 2016 and 2020, #BTC had significant surges just weeks before #ElectionDay.”
During the 2016 elections, Bitcoin surged from $600 three weeks prior and doubled in value by January 2017. Similarly, in 2020, Bitcoin’s price rose from $11K pre-election to $42K by January 2021.
Anticipating whether this trend will recur in 2024, Bitget Research’s chief analyst, Ryan Lee, expressed his insights.
Lee highlighted Bitcoin’s resilience despite the strengthening U.S. dollar, indicating a potentially bullish trend for the asset in the medium term.
Lee projected that Bitcoin’s price could stabilize within a range or even exceed $70K by the end of October.
“The crypto market is likely to witness increased volatility preceding key events, such as the upcoming November Fed meeting and the U.S. elections. Expect Bitcoin’s price to fluctuate between $58,000 and $69,000.”
Recent data shows that Bitcoin’s demand has surged in the last 30 days, reaching levels comparable to those seen in April, a significant shift from the low demand experienced in Q2/Q3, 2024.
Moreover, the recent price hike in Bitcoin has confirmed a higher low trend that may indicate a potential shift in market structure and the conclusion of the re-accumulation phase seen since March.
Nevertheless, prominent analyst Peter Brandt has suggested that a genuine market structure shift would require Bitcoin to surpass $68.2K.
As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $65.6K, standing about 12% below its all-time high of $73.7K.