Bitcoin [BTC] faced resistance at $66.5k following a robust surge at the end of September. Historically, October has been a positive month for the coin, but the trend seems different this time around. Currently, BTC is down 4% from its opening price this month.
An analysis of the spent output age bands indicates that several long-term holders, including those in the 12 to 18-month band, chose to offload their Bitcoin holdings on October 8th.
This wave of selling also involved short-term holders, marking a significant sell-off unseen since January 2021.
Bitcoin Halfing: Meeting Expectations or Facing Challenges?
In a recent statement, Ki Young Ju, the Founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, highlighted that the current sideways movement in a halving year could potentially be the lengthiest. In the 2020 cycle, Bitcoin started its upward trend around mid-October.
The performance of BTC in the initial quarter outpaced that of 2020; however, the beginning of both years presented considerable differences. In 2024, the approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. triggered a substantial surge in demand.
Conversely, in 2020, the global onset of the Coronavirus crisis loomed large, causing anxiety among analysts and investors about economic repercussions.
Counterarguments suggest that prolonged consolidation phases could lead to more robust breakthroughs. Will Bitcoin experience this, or has the flagship cryptocurrency matured, becoming less susceptible to the exceptional spikes witnessed in earlier cycles? Only time will unravel these mysteries.
Considering the Drop Opportunity
Renowned crypto analyst nestay observed that historically, the first fortnight of October typically witnesses volatility and an apparent downturn before a recovery phase.
An examination of the price actions in 2021, 2023, and 2024 revealed a similar pattern. In each of these instances, the market structure turned negative before a bullish trend emerged in the latter half of the month.
These observations may prompt the notion of seizing the opportunity presented by the drop. While it remains uncertain whether Bitcoin will exhibit the same strength as in previous cycles, long-term holders might opt for “HODLing” rather than selling in the wake of disappointing performances.