In the past, Bitcoin halving occurrences have been followed by significant price surges, leading many analysts and the market as a whole to anticipate a sharp rise in value after each event.
Recent data from a Blackrock report shows that since its inception in 2009, BTC’s worth has increased by 592 times. Subsequent halving events have also resulted in exponential returns.
For instance, in 2013, BTC saw returns of 555 times, followed by 104 times gains in 2017. The most recent halving in 2020 brought about another 21 times returns. This pattern is expected to continue after the 2024 halving event.
The Final Impactful BTC Halving?
However, Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, a crypto VC firm, believes that the current halving event could be the final one to trigger a parabolic BTC surge. Edwards stated,
“This marks the ultimate Halving cycle of significance.”
Edwards argued that the following halving cycle may not have a substantial impact on BTC since it is already the most scarce asset, with inflation rates lower than that of gold.
“The forthcoming halving may not carry as much weight considering BTC’s inflation rates are lower than that of gold. Therefore, any substantial price decline may not affect it significantly.”
Edwards acknowledged the possibility of the current cycle not yet capturing the potential impact of national adoption. Nonetheless, he emphasized that by 2028, the importance of halving cycles may diminish.
“Expecting massive price surges due to halving events will become increasingly unlikely as they are widely anticipated, and the efficiency of the BTC mining industry continues to improve. I believe the significance of the 4-year halving cycles will fade within the next four years.”
Of note, market cycle analyst Stockmoney Lizards has projected a potential price range of $200k—$260k per BTC for the peak of this current cycle, likely by Q4 2025.
To summarize, there is still ample room for BTC’s growth before reaching the cycle’s peak.
The world’s largest digital asset retested $66k on Friday and currently stands at $65.9k. This places it just 8% shy of its peak at $71k.