Bitcoin [BTC] is surging towards the $64K level, a crucial point that hasn’t been seen since the late August rally. This marks a significant juncture that could determine the future trend for BTC.
To avoid falling back into a bearish trend, bulls need to counter any downward pressure. If successful, the next obstacle could be around the $68K mark.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Run Depends on Reaching $64K
The current market cycle is reminiscent of the pattern seen in early August, where BTC climbed to $64K after dropping below $55K. However, the 18-day surge during that period faced inconsistent bearish influence.
In contrast, the current cycle shows more stable upward movements marked by consistent green candles; although the growth rate is not as linear, leading to volatility among investors.
Despite expectations of rate cuts boosting optimism, ongoing volatility has prevented BTC from revisiting $64K, currently trading at $63,543 – marking the fourth consecutive day below this significant level.
Since March, BTC has tested this crucial level five times after hitting its all-time high of $73K. In July, bulls managed to prevent a decline, pushing the price to $68K.
In summary, the $64K threshold has proven to be a turning point for Bitcoin, where market sentiment often shifts.
Although volume indicators suggest a bullish trend, the real challenge lies in whether other investors will support a breakout or if bears will once again hinder BTC’s upward movement.
Current Price Might Be Unattainable for Now
Over the last two days, BTC trading volume on CEX platforms has plummeted from $17B to $6B. This sharp decline could amplify market volatility, shaking investor confidence in a potential reversal.
A possible market peak may coincide with reduced trading activities on CEXs, as seen in the chart below.
Conversely, when exchange volumes surge during sharp declines in BTC price, it often signals a favorable opportunity to buy the dip.
According to CryptoCrypto, reduced exchange activity could indicate that investors are either capitalizing on profits from the September cycle or waiting for a dip to purchase BTC at a lower price.
If this trend persists, it could pave the way for a resurgence in short positions on Bitcoin, potentially hindering a breakout. Nevertheless,
Optimism Amid Uncertainty
With the end of the most volatile month nearing, the prospect of “Uptober” could mark a bullish turning point for the market, as indicated in the chart below.
Despite a minor 0.37% drop in Bitcoin’s value, the RPL ratio initially decreased, implying losses. However, most transactions have been executed at prices higher than the acquisition cost since then.
Furthermore, there has been a significant increase in large transactions exceeding $100K, reflecting heightened market activity.
Evidently, bulls are challenging the resistance preventing Bitcoin from surpassing the $64K barrier. The recent decline in CEX volume is strengthening short positions, acting as a hurdle.
Nonetheless, if the market stabilizes and sellers begin to realize profits, the fear of missing out (FOMO) could drive a more sustained bullish sentiment.
Ultimately, closely monitoring CEX volume in conjunction with speculative market behavior is vital. Failure to do so could potentially push BTC back below $60K.