Debate Arises Over Bitcoin Profit-Taking Amidst Recent Rally
Bitcoin [BTC] has been experiencing a downward trend since April when observed on longer-term price charts like the weekly timeframe.
On the daily charts, however, we’ve seen increased volatility, with instances like the 22% surge in July from $56k to $68k or the recent jump from $55k to $64k, a 17.5% increase over the last two weeks.
Has the Bitcoin Bull Run Concluded?
According to crypto analyst Axel Adler’s analysis shared on X, the formal shift to a bull market appears imminent, pending the breach and transformation of the 200-day moving average at $63.9k into a support level.
Many market participants previously speculated that the rally to $73.7k in March signaled the end of the bull run, questioning whether the Bitcoin halving would trigger another surge given the altered cycle dynamics.
While the period from October 2023 to June 2024 exhibited bullish tendencies, some debate whether this truly encapsulated the bull run. In comparison, the period from the Covid crash to the May 2020 halving saw Bitcoin surge by 157% in just 10 weeks.
Hence, a substantial price increase leading up to the halving isn’t unprecedented, with cycle lengths often influenced by various factors like the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF.
Analysis of Holders’ Behavior Suggests Bull Run Continuation
Another analysis by the same expert indicated that periods of price growth typically coincide with holders cashing out profits. However, this alone doesn’t signify the end of a bull run.
Moreover, the long-term holder/short-term holder spent output profit ratio (LTH/STH SOPR) has yet to exceed the threshold of 7, a trend observed at the previous cycle peaks.
During the lead-up to the last bull run, a significant price surge in 2019 prompted profit-taking, causing the SOPR to decline from 2.6 to 1.1. Similarly, the recent selling pressure has seen the metric drop from 4.2 to 1.5 over the past five months.
Overall, the prevailing metrics indicate potential for further Bitcoin price growth in the near future.