Approximately five months have passed since the halving event, yet Bitcoin’s [BTC] historical surging trend still seems out of reach.
Nonetheless, as indicated by CryptoQuant, the bullish momentum from the halving event might still be active, especially with the current actions of short-term BTC investors reflecting behavior observed in 2019.
Analytics reveal that 490 days after the peak of new investors around the 2019 halving, BTC experienced a surge, similar to the ongoing pattern.
“Presently, we are witnessing a minor peak in UTXOs under six months, resembling a structure akin to that observed in 2019 (highlighted in the red circle).”
Divergent Opinions on the Post-Halving Rally of BTC
To provide context, UTXO (unspent transaction output) data offers insights into BTC holders and their behaviors based on different age groups. The recorded data focused on individuals who held BTC for less than six months (new users).
The UTXO, however, decreased following BTC’s peak in March, potentially due to new investors departing to mitigate losses.
Despite this, as per the analysis, a significant BTC rally might only occur if there is a surge in the number of new BTC investors.
“Traditionally, the infusion of capital from new investors has been a crucial factor for the price hikes of Bitcoin.”
Both 2019 and 2024 witnessed BTC halving events. Nevertheless, the significant price surge occurred in 2020 post-halving. Will history repeat itself?
Some, such as the esteemed analyst Peter Brandt, suggested that BTC might not surpass its previous all-time high after a prolonged period of stagnation compared to previous cycles.
Conversely, Jasper De Maere from Outlier Ventures cautioned that BTC and digital assets have evolved, considering the halving event negligible in influencing the 2024 price.
“It is about time for founders and investors who try to time the market to shift focus towards more substantial macroeconomic influences instead of solely relying on the four-year cycle.”
On his part, James Straten believed that the recent 34% decline to $49k was ordinary in the bullish run and that the post-halving upsurge was still feasible.
Despite this, BTC network activity has dwindled further with active addresses hitting a new low in 2024, potentially dampening interest in the digital asset and affecting the price negatively.
“The number of active addresses on the #Bitcoin network recorded a new low in 2024, dropping to levels last seen three years ago, when BTC was valued at approximately $45,000.”
Whether the anticipated positive macroeconomic developments alongside a probable Fed rate cut will ignite the post-halving rally remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, BTC was trading at $56.7k at the time of reporting and has remained below $60k since the start of September.