Analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s value may range between $50K and $90K depending on the outcome of the U.S. elections.
As the U.S. elections come to a head, the immediate effect on Bitcoin (BTC) could be significant.
The latest insights from Bernstein suggest that if Harris wins, BTC could decline to $50K, whereas a triumph for Trump could propel it towards $80K-$90K.
The research and brokerage firm attributed the $50K BTC target to Harris’s hawkish approach.
In the event of a Trump victory, analysts anticipate that BTC could reach a new all-time high, citing the ex-president’s pro-crypto stance.
Projected Bitcoin Price Targets Post-Election
Amberdata, a blockchain analytics company, and asset manager Bitwise, share a similar outlook but with slightly varying targets.
According to Amberdata analysts, there could be a price swing of $6K-$8K depending on the election outcome.
A segment of their report stated,
“Thus, significant price levels stand at $60K (a potential drop if Kamala Harris wins) or between $75K-$77K in the event of a Trump victory that not only surpasses the all-time highs but also establishes new records amid election fervor.”
This aligns with recent moves by hedge funds in anticipation of bullish scenarios while bracing for possible volatile BTC price fluctuations.
By assessing BTC’s responsiveness to Trump’s odds on Polymarket, Bitwise analysts concluded that a Trump victory could trigger a 10% surge in BTC value. Conversely, a Harris win might lead to a nearly 10% decline in BTC price.
Current data from Deribit indicates that options traders are estimating a 21% likelihood of BTC reaching $80K by the end of November.
This projection seems plausible considering that as of November 4th, Trump maintained a lead in most election forecasts and prediction platforms as per the latest information from Galaxy Digital.
Looking beyond the immediate election dynamics, BTC has historically shown positive trends following the past three election cycles, with Bernstein forecasting a value of $200K by 2025.
Expressing her views on this, Maria Carola, the CEO of cryptocurrency exchange StealthEX, mentioned to CryptoCrypto that a favorable trend could emerge post-elections. She remarked,
“Historical data reveals an intriguing pattern – substantial growth followed each election. After the 2016 elections, prices surged to $1,110, and in 2020, Bitcoin achieved a landmark high exceeding $40,000.”
Nevertheless, she cautioned that short-term volatility might spike if election results are contested.
“BTC’s volatility is unlikely to rise pre-election, but post the U.S. presidential elections, volatility could escalate, especially in case of disputed outcomes.”